Lecce vs AS Roma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lecce 0-4 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Lecce, 27% draw, 45% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lecce vs AS Roma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Wladimiro FalconeG
- 5Jamil SiebertD
- 4Kialonda GasparD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 17Danilo VeigaM
- 29Lassana CoulibalyM
- 79Oumar NgomM
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 3Corrie NdabaM
- 50Santiago PierottiF
- 69Willem GeubbelsF
- 14Youssef MalehM
- 11N'Dri KonanF
- 9Nikola ŠtulićF
- 20Ivan IlićM
- 7Amar FatahF
- 33Plamen PenevG
- 1Marco BleveG
- 31Elijah ScottD
- 2Ali DembéléD
- 99Mile SvilarG
- 87Daniele GhilardiD
- 23Gianluca ManciniD
- 22Mario HermosoD
- 77Emanuele LulliM
- 17Manu KonéM
- 4Bryan CristanteM
- 43WesleyM
- 21Paulo DybalaF
- 18Matías SouléF
- 14Donyell MalenF
- 20Nahuel MolinaD
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 61Niccolò PisilliM
- 9Santiago CastroF
- 15Marten de RoonM
- 95Pierluigi GolliniG
- 70Giorgio De MarziG
- 26Leonardo BalerdiD
- 3Konstantinos KoulierakisD
Form going into Lecce vs AS Roma
Lecce
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026
AS Roma
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lecce vs AS Roma
- 22 March 2026AS Roma 1–0 LecceSerie A
- 6 January 2026Lecce 0–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 29 March 2025Lecce 0–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 7 December 2024AS Roma 4–1 LecceSerie A
- 1 April 2024Lecce 0–0 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: Lecce and AS Roma
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen82
- Rodrigo Mora40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AS Roma won 4–0 at Lecce. The model had made a win for AS Roma its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Malen 4' for AS Roma, D. Malen 23' for AS Roma, M. Soule 25' for AS Roma, R. Mora 65' for AS Roma. On expected goals it finished 0.74–3.35.