Lecce vs AS Roma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lecce 0-4 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Lecce, 27% draw, 45% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lecce vs AS Roma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Wladimiro FalconeG
- 5Jamil SiebertD
- 4Kialonda GasparD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 17Danilo VeigaM
- 29Lassana CoulibalyM
- 79Oumar NgomM
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 3Corrie NdabaM
- 50Santiago PierottiF
- 69Willem GeubbelsF
- 14Youssef MalehM
- 11N'Dri KonanF
- 9Nikola ŠtulićF
- 20Ivan IlićM
- 7Amar FatahF
- 33Plamen PenevG
- 1Marco BleveG
- 31Elijah ScottD
- 2Ali DembéléD
- 99Mile SvilarG
- 87Daniele GhilardiD
- 23Gianluca ManciniD
- 22Mario HermosoD
- 77Emanuele LulliM
- 17Manu KonéM
- 4Bryan CristanteM
- 43WesleyM
- 21Paulo DybalaF
- 18Matías SouléF
- 14Donyell MalenF
- 20Nahuel MolinaD
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 61Niccolò PisilliM
- 9Santiago CastroF
- 15Marten de RoonM
- 95Pierluigi GolliniG
- 70Giorgio De MarziG
- 26Leonardo BalerdiD
- 3Konstantinos KoulierakisD
Form going into Lecce vs AS Roma
Lecce
- W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026
AS Roma
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lecce | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 1 | AS Roma | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lecce vs AS Roma
- 31 August 2026Lecce 0–4 AS RomaSerie A
- 22 March 2026AS Roma 1–0 LecceSerie A
- 6 January 2026Lecce 0–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 29 March 2025Lecce 0–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 7 December 2024AS Roma 4–1 LecceSerie A
- 1 April 2024Lecce 0–0 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: Lecce and AS Roma
Lecce
- L. Coulibaly2 goals1 assists
- Tiago Gabriel2 goals
AS Roma
- D. Malen6 goals
- M. Soulé2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.