Toluca vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Toluca, 27% draw, 25% FC Juarez — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Toluca at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toluca vs FC Juarez
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. GonzalezG
- 184S. AcevesD
- 13LuanD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 25E. del VillarD
- 11HelinhoM
- 5F. RomeroM
- 9A. VegaM
- 7V. GuzmanM
- 29J. Diaz PriceF
- 23O. VirgenF
- 12R. BeltranG
- 3A. BrisenoD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 4Bruno MendezD
- 24F. ArceM
- 8N. CastroM
- 192L. NavarreteD
- 16F. VinasF
- 15P. PerezM
- 1S. JuradoG
- 33F. J. Nevarez PulgarinD
- 3J. MurilloD
- 2G. SepulvedaD
- 20J. AquinoD
- 5D. GarciaM
- 13Rodrigo DouradoM
- 10J. M. Torres Ramirez I.M
- 6MonchuM
- 11J. RodriguezM
- 19O. EstupinanF
- 24B. DiazG
- 23H. OrtegaD
- 4A. MayorgaD
- 14E. LopezM
- 7R. FulgencioM
- 16J. SigalaM
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 201J. CarmonaM
- 21RicardinhoM
Form going into Toluca vs FC Juarez
Toluca
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM22 July 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026
FC Juarez
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Club America22 August 2026
- L1-6away to Monterrey16 August 2026
- L1-5Pumas UNAM1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas25 July 2026
- L0-1Puebla18 July 2026
What these results say
- Toluca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs FC Juarez
- 8 March 2026Toluca 3–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 30 November 2025Toluca 0–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 27 November 2025FC Juarez 1–2 TolucaLiga MX
- 12 August 2025FC Juarez 0–2 TolucaLiga MX
- 22 February 2025FC Juarez 0–4 TolucaLiga MX
- 14 July 2024Toluca 3–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and FC Juarez
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toluca beat FC Juarez 4–0. The model had made a win for Toluca its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro 10' for Toluca, Jesus Murillo (own goal) 34' for Toluca, Oswaldo Virgen 73' for Toluca, Federico Viñas 79' for Toluca. On expected goals it finished 3.11–0.16.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.