31 August 2026, 00:00 UTC

Toluca vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result

Toluca
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Toluca, 27% draw, 25% FC Juarez — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toluca at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Toluca vs FC Juarez

Toluca

  • W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026

FC Juarez

  • L1-2Club America22 August 2026
  • L1-6away to Monterrey16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Toluca8611186+1219
18FC Juarez8008423-190

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toluca vs FC Juarez

  • 8 March 2026Toluca 3–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 30 November 2025Toluca 0–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 27 November 2025FC Juarez 1–2 TolucaLiga MX
  • 12 August 2025FC Juarez 0–2 TolucaLiga MX
  • 22 February 2025FC Juarez 0–4 TolucaLiga MX
  • 14 July 2024Toluca 3–2 FC JuarezLiga MX

Leading scorers: Toluca and FC Juarez

Toluca

  • F. Viñas3 goals

FC Juarez

  • Ó. Estupiñán3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.