Athletic Club MG vs Atletico Goianiense Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club MG 2-3 Atletico Goianiense.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Athletic Club MG, 29% draw, 34% Atletico Goianiense — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club MG at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club MG vs Atletico Goianiense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1TonyG
- 22Diogo BatistaD
- 3JhonatanD
- 13Philipe SampaioD
- 4Lucas BeleziD
- 6Gabriel Verutti Brigida RogerioD
- 7YarlenM
- 14Yago SantosM
- 16João MiguelM
- 17KauanM
- 11MaxF
- 19Matheus De Oliveira PimentaD
- 2Douglas PeléD
- 5Felipe VieiraD
- 21D. VeraF
- 18Luiz FernandoM
- 8Eduardo FilipeM
- 23Joao VitorD
- 26GlaucoG
- 12Eduardo Freire de AndradeG
- 1Paulo VítorG
- 2WarleyD
- 3J. BarretoD
- 4Adriano MartinsD
- 6Guilherme LopesD
- 8Henrique Freitas AlvesM
- 5NetinhoM
- 7Bruno JoséM
- 10D. TeransM
- 11Soares GeovanyM
- 9Gustavo CoutinhoF
- 13EwerthonD
- 18João PedroF
- 20Léo TocantinsF
- 19MatheusinhoM
- 17K. PereiraM
- 16Gustavo DanielD
- 12Paulo HenriqueG
- 15NatãD
- 14GebsonD
Form going into Athletic Club MG vs Atletico Goianiense
Athletic Club MG
Serie B
- W2-1Ceara2 November 2026
- L0-1away to Operario-PR23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Avai18 October 2026
Atletico Goianiense
Serie B
- D0-0away to Fortaleza EC2 November 2026
- L0-1Novorizontino24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ponte Preta16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 38 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 46 | 35 | +11 | 61 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club MG vs Atletico Goianiense
- 18 July 2026Atletico Goianiense 0–0 Athletic Club MGSerie B
- 4 August 2025Athletic Club MG 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 7 April 2025Atletico Goianiense 4–2 Athletic Club MGSerie B
Leading scorers: Athletic Club MG and Atletico Goianiense
Athletic Club MG
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Atletico Goianiense
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Coutinho150
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Goianiense won 3–2 at Athletic Club MG. The model had leaned towards a win for Athletic Club MG at 37% and given a win for Atletico Goianiense 34%. The goals: Maswel Ananias Silva 14' for Athletic Club MG, Gustavo Silva 61' for Athletic Club MG, João Pedro 67' for Atletico Goianiense, Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopes (penalty) 70' for Atletico Goianiense, Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopes 90' for Atletico Goianiense. Sent off: Maswel Ananias Silva (Athletic Club MG) 45+3'. On expected goals it finished 0.52–1.81.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.