Union La Calera vs Huachipato Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Union La Calera 1-0 Huachipato.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Union La Calera, 29% draw, 31% Huachipato — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Chilean Primera División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Union La Calera at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union La Calera vs Huachipato
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. AvellanedaG
- 25C. DíazD
- 15J. SalomoniD
- 27D. GutiérrezD
- 4C. GutiérrezD
- 5C. MoyaM
- 32B. FerreyraM
- 17M. HiriartM
- 23R. PérezM
- 7B. OyarzoM
- 11S. SáezF
- 22Benjamín AstudilloG
- 19M. CamposF
- 10K. MéndezF
- 29J. SotoM
- 21Valentino TorrenteM
- 13Pablo Esteban Valero CifuentesM
- 3N. PalmaD
- 6V. LavinD
- 30Maximiliano FernandezF
- 12C. BravoG
- 20C. ToroD
- 8P. VargasD
- 5R. CarocaD
- 7M. BriceñoM
- 24M. LeónM
- 6C. SepúlvedaM
- 26H. AntiñirreM
- 30K. AltezM
- 19S. NúñezF
- 15M. RodríguezF
- 16L. ArriagadaF
- 10E. CañeteM
- 11J. FigueroaF
- 21C. HerreraM
- 23C. MartínezF
- 1S. MellaG
- 29C. TorresM
- 3B. MelladoD
- 2N. GuaiquilD
Form going into Union La Calera vs Huachipato
Union La Calera
Primera División
- L0-1away to Coquimbo Unido30 October 2026
- W3-1Universidad Catolica25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Concepción11 October 2026
- W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026
Huachipato
Primera División
- D0-0Deportes La Serena1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Audax Italiano23 October 2026
- W2-0O'Higgins10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Universidad de Concepcion2 October 2026
What these results say
- Union La Calera scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Union La Calera conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Union La Calera had two goals or fewer.
- Huachipato went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Huachipato had two goals or fewer.
- Huachipato scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union La Calera | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 24 |
| 11 | Huachipato | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union La Calera vs Huachipato
- 17 May 2026Huachipato 3–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 9 August 2025Huachipato 1–0 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 7 March 2025Union La Calera 1–0 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 29 July 2024Union La Calera 2–1 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 25 February 2024Huachipato 0–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 6 October 2023Union La Calera 2–4 HuachipatoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Union La Calera and Huachipato
Union La Calera
GoalsAssists
- S. Sáez91
Huachipato
GoalsAssists
- L. Altamirano91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Union La Calera beat Huachipato 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Union La Calera at 40%. The goal: Brian Nicolás Ferreyra 23' for Union La Calera. On expected goals it finished 1.44–0.35.
How the call on Union La Calera v Huachipato has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Union La Calera's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Union La Calera win40%▲ +4
- Draw29%=
- Huachipato win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.