Pisa vs Sudtirol Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Pisa 2-2 Sudtirol.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Pisa, 26% draw, 22% Sudtirol — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pisa at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pisa vs Sudtirol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98A. ConfenteG
- 33A. CalabresiD
- 13A. PrimassoD
- 3S. AngoriD
- 23T. MarrasM
- 14F. LoyolaM
- 29O. CorreiaM
- 7M. LérisM
- 32S. MoreoM
- 10M. TramoniM
- 8F. PittarelloF
- 26F. CoppolaD
- 4A. CaraccioloD
- 11I. FerrahM
- 55G. LeoneM
- 37A. PetagnaF
- 2R. BozhinovD
- 36G. PiccininiM
- 17E. RaoF
- 1S. ScuffetG
- 22A. PlizzariG
- 4R. StivanelloD
- 55A. GiorginiD
- 27G. StabileD
- 79S. MolinaM
- 10Fabio RispoliM
- 5S. TronchinM
- 14A. VasicM
- 11Vasco LopesM
- 9R. BurneteM
- 90A. OkoroF
- 46D. BrikM
- 23F. DaviD
- 24S. DavìD
- 39Marco IulianoD
- 25K. MixturF
- 19M. PelliniD
- 8N. PyyhtiäM
- 80Elias SchrootM
- 21F. TaitM
Form going into Pisa vs Sudtirol
Pisa
Serie B
- L0-2away to Avellino1 November 2026
- D3-3Palermo28 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hellas Verona25 October 2026
- W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026
Sudtirol
Serie B
- D1-1Cesena31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Padova27 October 2026
- D1-1Sampdoria24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Juve Stabia18 October 2026
What these results say
- Pisa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Pisa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pisa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sudtirol did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sudtirol conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pisa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Sudtirol | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pisa vs Sudtirol
- 9 May 2025Pisa 3–3 SudtirolSerie B
- 19 October 2024Sudtirol 1–2 PisaSerie B
- 5 May 2024Pisa 2–2 SudtirolSerie B
- 11 November 2023Sudtirol 1–2 PisaSerie B
- 4 February 2023Pisa 0–1 SudtirolSerie B
- 4 September 2022Sudtirol 2–1 PisaSerie B
Leading scorers: Pisa and Sudtirol
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- F. Pittarello41
- M. Tramoni35
- T. Marras31
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pisa and Sudtirol drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Pisa at 52% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Matteo Tramoni 26' for Pisa, Aljosa Vasic 33' for Sudtirol, Mehdi Léris 73' for Pisa, Aljosa Vasic 76' for Sudtirol. Sent off: Aljosa Vasic (Sudtirol) 89'. On expected goals it finished 1.72–1.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pisa a 12.1% chance to finish in the top two: 13.5% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.9%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
For Sudtirol the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.8% going in: 8.2% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.1%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.