8 November 2026, 22:15 UTC

Ceara vs America Mineiro Serie B prediction & result

Fortaleza
Referee: Edina Alves Batista
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Ceara 0-1 America Mineiro.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Ceara, 27% draw, 23% America Mineiro — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ceara at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ceara0%Draw5%America Mineiro95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Renzo Lópezout: Lucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares
30'
🔁Sávio António Alvesout: Janderson Gabriel De Oliveira Martins
45'
45'
🔁Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesusout: Eduardo Person
Rian Santana
50'
51'
⚽Matías Segoviaassist: Eduardo Person
🔁Richardsonout: Matheus Araujo
59'
🔁Rian Santanaout: Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli
59'
66'
🔁Tobias Ostchegaout: Luidy Montes Carneiro
🔁Bryan Borges Mascarenhasout: Lucas Mugni
73'
Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli
76'
79'
Luidy Montes Carneiro
83'
Matías Segovia
89'
🔁Otavio Goncalvesout: Gabriel De Oliveira Da Silva
90+2'
Barreto
90+3'
🔁Willianout: Marcelo Enrique Maçola Filho
90+3'
🔁Matías Segoviaout: Felipe
Lucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares
90+4'
Richard
90+7'

Match stats — Ceara vs America Mineiro

64%Possession36%
31Shots11
6On target6
9Corners1
1.56xG1.38

Goals against chances

Ceara0 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth
America Mineiro1 from 1.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ceara 4-2-3-1
  • 1RichardG
  • 31BryanD
  • 13Luiz OtávioD
  • 71Gabriel Silva RochaD
  • 6SávioD
  • 26RichardsonM
  • 81Joao GabrielM
  • 60Enzo LodovicoM
  • 40RichardM
  • 16Rian SantanaM
  • 94R. LópezF
Substitutes
  • 10L. MugniM
  • 77Lenny LobatoF
  • 99LuccaF
  • 23Caíque FrançaG
  • 11N. FerreiraF
  • 2Rafael RamosD
  • 80P. EsliM
  • 22Matheus NogueiraG
  • 44Kaiky Cabral LeãoM
Coach: Daniel Paulista
America Mineiro 4-2-3-1
  • 91Bruno BrígidoG
  • 55Otavio GoncalvesD
  • 45Ricardo SilvaD
  • 2Emerson SantosD
  • 25T. OstchegaD
  • 93J. JiménezM
  • 88BarretoM
  • 20Paulo VictorM
  • 77M. SegoviaM
  • 7Guilherme ParedeM
  • 9WillianF
Substitutes
  • 27CássioG
  • 21Eduardo PersonM
  • 8Felipe AmaralM
  • 71Cristian Do Espirito Santo RodriguesD
  • 61G. OliveiraD
  • 80Pedro ParanhosF
  • 30L. MontesD
  • 99Marcelo MacolaF
  • 37Cesar Leme Do Nascimento JulioM
Coach: Moacir Júnior

Form going into Ceara vs America Mineiro

Ceara

Serie B

  • L1-2away to Athletic Club MG2 November 2026
  • L0-2Goias27 October 2026
  • D2-2Juventude17 October 2026

America Mineiro

Serie B

  • W3-1away to Londrina1 November 2026
  • W1-0Cuiaba26 October 2026
  • W1-0Operario-PR17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Ceara381111163948-944
19America Mineiro3885252757-3029

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ceara vs America Mineiro

  • 17 July 2026America Mineiro 1–1 CearaSerie B
  • 19 November 2024Ceara 1–0 America MineiroSerie B
  • 28 July 2024America Mineiro 2–2 CearaSerie B
  • 1 October 2022Ceara 1–2 America MineiroSerie A
  • 8 June 2022America Mineiro 0–2 CearaSerie A
  • 5 December 2021Ceara 0–0 America MineiroSerie A

Leading scorers: Ceara and America Mineiro

Ceara

GoalsAssists

  • Richard74

America Mineiro

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

America Mineiro won 1–0 at Ceara. The model had leaned towards a win for Ceara at 50% and given a win for America Mineiro 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Matías Segovia 51' for America Mineiro. On expected goals it finished 1.56–1.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ceara a 3.0% chance to finish in the bottom four: 0.0% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.2%, 12.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ceara v America Mineiro has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Ceara's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Ceara win50%▼ −7
  2. Draw27%▲ +2
  3. America Mineiro win23%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.