Athletic Club MG vs Ceara Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club MG 2-1 Ceara.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Athletic Club MG, 26% draw, 26% Ceara — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club MG at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club MG vs Ceara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Luan PolliG
- 5Felipe NegrucciD
- 4Lucas BeleziD
- 3J. TorresD
- 22Diogo BatistaM
- 16João MiguelM
- 15JotaM
- 23EnzoM
- 10AssisF
- 9CarlinhosF
- 17KauanF
- 20W. AponzaF
- 8G. CabezasM
- 2Douglas PeléD
- 11MaxF
- 18Pedro OliveiraM
- 13Philipe SampaioD
- 21D. VeraF
- 14Yago SantosM
- 19YarlenF
- 1RichardG
- 33ÉderD
- 13Luiz OtávioD
- 71Gabriel Silva RochaD
- 31BryanM
- 26RichardsonM
- 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
- 77Lenny LobatoM
- 60Enzo LodovicoF
- 73Saulo MineiroF
- 40RichardF
- 44Kaiky Cabral LeãoM
- 11N. FerreiraF
- 2Rafael RamosD
- 16Rian SantanaF
- 23Caíque FrançaG
- 29VinaM
- 99LuccaF
- 94R. LópezF
- 10L. MugniM
Form going into Athletic Club MG vs Ceara
Athletic Club MG
Serie B
- L0-1away to Operario-PR23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Avai18 October 2026
Ceara
Serie B
- L0-2Goias27 October 2026
- D2-2Juventude17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48 |
| 16 | Ceara | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club MG vs Ceara
- 13 July 2026Ceara 0–0 Athletic Club MGSerie B
Leading scorers: Athletic Club MG and Ceara
Athletic Club MG
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Richard74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Athletic Club MG beat Ceara 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Athletic Club MG at 48%. The goals: Saulo Mineiro 22' for Ceara, Redney 35' for Athletic Club MG, Jhan Pool Torres Cañete 65' for Athletic Club MG. On expected goals it finished 1.61–1.12.
How the call on Athletic Club MG v Ceara has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Athletic Club MG's chance of winning, up 17 points.
- Athletic Club MG win48%▲ +17
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Ceara win26%▼ −16
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.