1 November 2026, 16:15 UTC

Hellas Verona vs Carrarese Serie B prediction & result

Verona
Referee: Paride Tremolada
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Hellas Verona 3-0 Carrarese.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Hellas Verona, 27% draw, 26% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hellas Verona at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hellas Verona99%Draw1%Carrarese0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Abdou Harrouiassist: Gabriele Zappa
10'
⚽Daniel Mosquera
22'
⚽Amin Sarrassist: Kacper Sezonienko
38'
🔁Kacper Sezonienkoout: Dailon Livramento
45'
56'
🔁G. Marconiout: Tommaso Rubino
Dailon Livramento
64'
68'
🔁Fabio abiusoout: Mattia Finotto
68'
🔁Luka Topalovicout: Moustapha Cisse
75'
🔁Matthias Braunöderout: Nicolo Cudrig
75'
🔁Nicolas Schiaviout: Jacopo Martini
🔁Amin Sarrout: Caleb Ekuban
75'
🔁Abdou Harrouiout: Edoardo Iannoni
75'
🔁Martin Freseout: Fallou Cham
75'
🔁Daniel Mosqueraout: Samuele Mulattieri
86'

Match stats — Hellas Verona vs Carrarese

42%Possession58%
12Shots16
5On target5
5Corners9
1.22xG0.98

Goals against chances

Hellas Verona3 from 1.22 xGmore than the chances were worth
Carrarese0 from 0.98 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hellas Verona 4-3-3
  • 34S. PerilliG
  • 4G. ZappaD
  • 28T. SlotsagerD
  • 5A. EdmundssonD
  • 3M. FreseD
  • 21A. HarrouiM
  • 17A. Le BorgneM
  • 24A. BernedeM
  • 79K. SezonienkoF
  • 25D. MosqueraF
  • 9A. SarrF
Substitutes
  • 70F. ChamD
  • 1N. LealiG
  • 33N. TagneD
  • 37N. CalabreseD
  • 27P. DawidowiczD
  • 44E. IannoniM
  • 23N. LellaM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 14D. LivramentoF
Coach: M. Baroni
Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 33F. RealeD
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 18Nicolás SchiaviM
  • 23M. BraunöderM
  • 17L. TopalovićM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 9F. AbiusoF
  • 91G. MarconiF
Substitutes
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 5T. MacchioniD
  • 20Gonçalo EstevesD
  • 41L. RomaniD
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 8Y. KhafiM
  • 70N. CudrigF
  • 10T. RubinoF
  • 11M. CisséF
Coach: G. Pagliuca

Form going into Hellas Verona vs Carrarese

Hellas Verona

Serie B

  • W1-0away to Juve Stabia28 October 2026
  • D1-1Pisa25 October 2026
  • D2-2Catanzaro16 October 2026

Carrarese

Serie B

  • W2-1Arezzo28 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Palermo25 October 2026
  • W2-1Modena17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Hellas Verona114431913+616
17Carrarese11317914-510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Carrarese

Hellas Verona

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mosquera70

Carrarese

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hellas Verona beat Carrarese 3–0. The model had made a win for Hellas Verona its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Abdou Harroui 10' for Hellas Verona, Daniel Mosquera 22' for Hellas Verona, Amin Sarr 38' for Hellas Verona. On expected goals it finished 1.22–0.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hellas Verona a 7.3% chance to finish in the top two: 8.3% after a win, 6.0% after a draw, 5.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.3%, 1 points higher than before the match.

For Carrarese the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.8% going in: 6.9% after a win, 11.4% after a draw, 13.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.4%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hellas Verona v Carrarese has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 49% / 29% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Carrarese's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Hellas Verona win47%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Carrarese win26%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.