Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Palermo 3-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Palermo, 21% draw, 17% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Palermo at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. PerinG
- 84T. CassandroD
- 29P. PedaD
- 32P. CeccaroniD
- 3T. AugelloD
- 10F. RanocchiaM
- 8J. SegreM
- 9D. VavassoriM
- 23HernaniM
- 17D. JohnsenM
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 99A. GabrielloniF
- 6C. GomesM
- 11E. GyasiD
- 96G. MagnaniD
- 36L. MazzitelliM
- 12M. NespolaG
- 14M. FortinG
- 24N. EstévezM
- 33A. BozzolanD
- 16R. GagnoG
- 66A. PapettiD
- 23N. BrighentiD
- 5R. MarchizzaD
- 99A. PietrelliM
- 4M. CarraroM
- 8A. BellemoM
- 32F. CostaM
- 10M. ValotiM
- 33S. MerkajF
- 9C. MorraF
- 24Filippo AlessioF
- 28L. CaferriD
- 21T. CorazzaD
- 6M. LeverbeD
- 11G. MonciniF
- 77A. RadaM
- 7N. RautiF
- 27T. SandonD
- 44R. TalaricoM
Form going into Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus
Palermo
Serie B
- D3-3away to Pisa28 October 2026
- W2-1Carrarese25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026
Vicenza Virtus
Serie B
- L1-2Modena27 October 2026
- W2-0away to Empoli23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 18 | Vicenza Virtus | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus
- 5 August 2018Palermo 3–3 Vicenza VirtusCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Palermo and Vicenza Virtus
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen75
- D. Vavassori61
Vicenza Virtus
GoalsAssists
- S. Merkaj31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palermo beat Vicenza Virtus 3–1. The model had made a win for Palermo its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nicolò Brighenti 2' for Vicenza Virtus, Dennis Johnsen 45' for Palermo, Dominic Vavassori 53' for Palermo, Dominic Vavassori 85' for Palermo. On expected goals it finished 2.83–1.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Palermo a 47.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 50.1% after a win, 42.5% after a draw, 39.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.1%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
For Vicenza Virtus the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.7% going in: 19.6% after a win, 25.2% after a draw, 27.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.9%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Palermo v Vicenza Virtus has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 66% / 20% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 62% / 21% / 17%: the biggest move is Palermo's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Palermo win62%▼ −4
- Draw21%▲ +1
- Vicenza Virtus win17%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.