2 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense Serie B prediction & result

Fortaleza
Referee: Bruno Arleu
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Fortaleza EC 0-0 Atletico Goianiense.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fortaleza EC, 29% draw, 27% Atletico Goianiense — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fortaleza EC at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fortaleza EC5%Draw93%Atletico Goianiense2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
🔁Marrony da Silva Liberato Silveiraout: David Terans
🔁Nerisout: Tomás Cardona
30'
Bastos
36'
45+3'
Cristiano Claudinei Nogueira
🔁Lucca Prior Pimentaout: Kaio Henrique
45'
55'
Henrique
56'
Roger Rodrigues da Silva
57'
Roger Rodrigues da Silva
62'
Gustavo Maia da Silva
🔁Ryan Gustavo de Limaout: Paulo Baya
65'
67'
🔁Gustavo Maia da Silvaout: Bruno José
78'
🔁Warley Leandro da Silvaout: Ewerthon Diogenes da Silva
79'
🔁Henriqueout: Klebert de Oliveira Pereira
79'
🔁Geovany Soaresout: Matheuzinho
🔁Chico da Costaout: Lucas Sasha
86'
🔁Jailson Siqueiraout: Nathan Fogaça
86'
⚽Maílton (pen)
90'
Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza
90'
Pierre
90+1'
Maílton
90+4'

Match stats — Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense

56%Possession44%
16Shots19
2On target5
7Corners10
1.58xG1.33

Goals against chances

Fortaleza EC0 from 1.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico Goianiense0 from 1.33 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fortaleza EC 3-4-3
  • 1João RicardoG
  • 23NerisD
  • 20JaílsonD
  • 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
  • 22MaíltonM
  • 5PierreM
  • 37Ryan GustavoM
  • 75RodriguinhoM
  • 38LuccaF
  • 91Francisco da CostaF
  • 16Pedro HenriqueF
Substitutes
  • 12Kaio HenriqueD
  • 8RonaldM
  • 17Nathan FogaçaF
  • 3Lucas GazalD
  • 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
  • 29RodrigoM
  • 88Lucas SashaM
  • 77Paulo BayaF
  • 31WellitonF
Coach: Paulo Autuori
Atletico Goianiense 4-2-3-1
  • 1Paulo VítorG
  • 2WarleyD
  • 3J. BarretoD
  • 4Adriano MartinsD
  • 6Guilherme LopesD
  • 8Henrique Freitas AlvesM
  • 5CristianoM
  • 7Soares GeovanyM
  • 10MarronyM
  • 11Gustavo MaiaM
  • 9Gustavo CoutinhoF
Substitutes
  • 14GebsonD
  • 15NatãD
  • 20MatheusinhoM
  • 18João PedroF
  • 13EwerthonD
  • 19D. TeransM
  • 22Bruno JoséM
  • 12Paulo HenriqueG
  • 21Isac Niltton Romão Da SilvaF
Coach: Roger

Form going into Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense

Fortaleza EC

Serie B

  • D2-2away to Ponte Preta24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Sport Recife16 October 2026

Atletico Goianiense

Serie B

  • L0-1Novorizontino24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ponte Preta16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Fortaleza EC38171474533+1265
6Atletico Goianiense38161394635+1161

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense

  • 12 July 2026Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Fortaleza ECSerie B
  • 5 December 2024Atletico Goianiense 3–1 Fortaleza ECSerie A
  • 21 July 2024Fortaleza EC 3–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
  • 6 November 2022Fortaleza EC 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
  • 17 July 2022Atletico Goianiense 0–1 Fortaleza ECSerie A
  • 2 October 2021Fortaleza EC 0–3 Atletico GoianienseSerie A

Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense

Fortaleza EC

GoalsAssists

  • Maílton103

Atletico Goianiense

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Coutinho150

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortaleza EC at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. Sent off: Roger Rodrigues da Silva (Atletico Goianiense) 57'. On expected goals it finished 1.58–1.33.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortaleza EC a 11.2% chance to finish in the top two: 18.4% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 1.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.2%, 6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fortaleza EC v Atletico Goianiense has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Fortaleza EC's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. Fortaleza EC win44%▼ −8
  2. Draw29%▲ +3
  3. Atletico Goianiense win27%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.