Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Athletic Club, 29% draw, 32% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 5YerayD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 17YuriD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 30Iker MonrealD
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 44S. SanchezM
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 18Marc PubillD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 11A. LookmanM
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 10Álex BaenaF
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 6KokeM
- 5J. CardosoM
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 46J. CastilloM
- 15J. DavidF
Form going into Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
- L1-3Sevilla22 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
- 25 April 2026Atletico Madrid 3–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 6 December 2025Athletic Club 1–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 1 March 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 31 August 2024Athletic Club 0–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 27 April 2024Atletico Madrid 3–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Athletic Club beat Atletico Madrid 3–0. The model had made a win for Athletic Club its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nico Williams 46' for Athletic Club, Robert Navarro Muñoz 48' for Athletic Club, Oihan Sancet 90' for Athletic Club.