Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Athletic Club, 29% draw, 32% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 5YerayD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 17YuriD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 30Iker MonrealD
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 44S. SanchezM
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 18Marc PubillD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 11A. LookmanM
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 10Álex BaenaF
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 6KokeM
- 5J. CardosoM
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 46J. CastilloM
- 15J. DavidF
Form going into Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
- L1-3Sevilla22 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Athletic Club | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
- 5 September 2026Athletic Club 3–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 25 April 2026Atletico Madrid 3–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 6 December 2025Athletic Club 1–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 1 March 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 31 August 2024Athletic Club 0–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 27 April 2024Atletico Madrid 3–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Atletico Madrid
- Álex Baena3 goals1 assists
- G. Simeone2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.