Alaves vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 5-2 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Alaves, 30% draw, 29% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alaves at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Osasuna
Line-ups
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17JonnyD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 7Angel PérezM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 15L. BoyéF
- 9M. DíazF
- 24Selu DialloM
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 3YusiD
- 6GuevaraM
- 29Izei HernándezF
- 20A. ManasF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 27X. OlaizD
- 13A. GiménezG
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 24CatenaD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 7MoncayolaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 16Moi GómezM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 17A. BudimirF
- 30Asier BonelF
- 20R. Del CastilloM
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 18Raul MoroF
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 15Diego RicoD
- 35U. SantosD
Form going into Alaves vs Osasuna
Alaves
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
Osasuna
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Osasuna
- 6 September 2026Alaves 5–2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 5 April 2026Alaves 2–2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 20 December 2025Osasuna 3–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 24 May 2025Alaves 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 8 December 2024Osasuna 2–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 10 August 2024Osasuna 1–2 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Alaves and Osasuna
Alaves
- L. Boyé4 goals
- M. Díaz3 goals3 assists
Osasuna
- A. Budimir4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.