Alaves vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 5-2 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Alaves, 30% draw, 29% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Alaves at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Osasuna
Line-ups
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17JonnyD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 7Angel PérezM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 15L. BoyéF
- 9M. DíazF
- 24Selu DialloM
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 3YusiD
- 6GuevaraM
- 29Izei HernándezF
- 20A. ManasF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 27X. OlaizD
- 13A. GiménezG
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 24CatenaD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 7MoncayolaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 16Moi GómezM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 17A. BudimirF
- 30Asier BonelF
- 20R. Del CastilloM
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 18Raul MoroF
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 15Diego RicoD
- 35U. SantosD
Form going into Alaves vs Osasuna
Alaves
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
- W3-0Getafe15 August 2026
Osasuna
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026
- D0-0Levante24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Osasuna
- 5 April 2026Alaves 2–2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 20 December 2025Osasuna 3–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 24 May 2025Alaves 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 8 December 2024Osasuna 2–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 10 August 2024Osasuna 1–2 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Alaves and Osasuna
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alaves beat Osasuna 5–2. The model had made a win for Alaves its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lucas Boyé 27' for Alaves, Mariano Díaz 36' for Alaves, Ante Budimir 46' for Osasuna, Lucas Boyé 51' for Alaves, Ante Budimir (penalty) 64' for Osasuna, Lucas Boyé 68' for Alaves, Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras 90' for Alaves.