Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing Santander.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Rayo Vallecano, 27% draw, 31% Racing Santander — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rayo Vallecano at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander
Line-ups
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 6P. CissD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 8Unai LópezM
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 9AlemãoF
- 25E. AuderoG
- 20I. BalliuD
- 36G. BouareM
- 26Marco de las SíasD
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 11R. NtekaM
- 21Fran PérezF
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Álvaro MantillaD
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 23Iván MartínM
- 18M. PratiM
- 15Pablo GarcíaM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 21M. ZabiriF
- 24J. BelocianD
- 14M. GueyeM
- 7G. GuliashviliF
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 22Pedro FelipeD
- 38H. PerezF
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 6Íñigo Sainz-MazaM
- 12Asier VillalibreF
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander
Rayo Vallecano
- L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
Racing Santander
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander
- 5 September 2026Rayo Vallecano 3–2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 20 July 2020Racing Santander 1–2 Rayo VallecanoSegunda División
- 13 September 2019Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 3 March 2012Rayo Vallecano 4–2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 1 October 2011Racing Santander 1–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander
Rayo Vallecano
- Sergio Camello6 goals1 assists
- Álvaro García2 goals2 assists
Racing Santander
- M. Zabiri5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.