Athletic Club vs Elche La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 1-1 Elche.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Athletic Club, 31% draw, 25% Elche — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club at 44% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Elche
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 5YerayD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 17YuriD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 25Álvaro DjalóF
- 7Álex BerenguerF
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 30Iker MonrealD
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 6BigasD
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 22Rubén SánchezD
- 9E. PonceF
- 24A. OsorioF
- 16Martim NetoM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 18T. LemarM
- 17JosanM
Form going into Athletic Club vs Elche
Athletic Club
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
- L1-3Sevilla22 August 2026
Elche
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
- L0-5Barcelona23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Athletic Club | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 20 | Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Elche
- 12 September 2026Athletic Club 1–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 20 February 2026Athletic Club 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 19 October 2025Elche 0–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 28 May 2023Athletic Club 0–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 11 September 2022Elche 1–4 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 3 April 2022Athletic Club 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Elche
Athletic Club
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Elche
- Fer Niño3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.