Athletic Club vs Elche La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 1-1 Elche.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Athletic Club, 31% draw, 25% Elche — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Elche
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 5YerayD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 17YuriD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 25Álvaro DjalóF
- 7Álex BerenguerF
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 30Iker MonrealD
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 6BigasD
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 22Rubén SánchezD
- 9E. PonceF
- 24A. OsorioF
- 16Martim NetoM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 18T. LemarM
- 17JosanM
Form going into Athletic Club vs Elche
Athletic Club
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
- L1-3Sevilla22 August 2026
Elche
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
- L0-5Barcelona23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna17 August 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Elche did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Elche conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Elche scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Elche
- 20 February 2026Athletic Club 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 19 October 2025Elche 0–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 28 May 2023Athletic Club 0–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 11 September 2022Elche 1–4 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 3 April 2022Athletic Club 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Elche
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Athletic Club and Elche drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Athletic Club at 44% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Facundo Buonanotte (penalty) 50' for Elche, Iñaki Williams 79' for Athletic Club.
How the call on Athletic Club v Elche has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 31% / 25%: the biggest move is Athletic Club's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Athletic Club win44%▲ +2
- Draw31%=
- Elche win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.