Girona vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Girona 1-2 Castellón.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Girona, 27% draw, 22% Castellón — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Girona at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Girona vs Castellón
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 16A. FrancesD
- 5D. LopezD
- 38H. Zamorano
- 11A. MorenoD
- 8F. BeltranM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 22Y. AsprillaM
- 9A. RuizM
- 17B. GilM
- 19V. VanatF
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 1S. PuigG
- 4J. BonarD
- 3M. MoreyD
- 2A. MuminD
- 33M. FurtadoD
- 6D. van de BeekM
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 14I. MoranteM
- 13R. MatthysG
- 2Juanjo NietoD
- 5A. JimenezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 12L. AlcazarD
- 26R. RegoM
- 6M. OrozcoM
- 8BarriM
- 17F. CastilloM
- 10I. SueroF
- 9O. CamaraF
- 1A. SaipiG
- 22J. MellotD
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 23A. GarciaF
- 27A. GalaM
- 25J. VlakM
- 7R. SanchezF
- 14I. CordobaM
- 16A. JakobsenF
Form going into Girona vs Castellón
Girona
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Sporting Gijon5 September 2026
- W5-2Las Palmas29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cordoba21 August 2026
- D1-1Leganes16 August 2026
Castellón
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026
What these results say
- Girona scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Girona conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Girona.
- Castellón went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Castellón won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Castellón scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Girona | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 24 |
| 2 | Castellón | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Girona vs Castellón
- 29 July 2026Girona 3–3 CastellónFriendlies Clubs
- 21 February 2021Girona 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 24 October 2020Castellón 0–1 GironaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Girona and Castellón
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero62
- A. Jakobsen41
- Ousmane Camara41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Castellón won 2–1 at Girona. The model had leaned towards a win for Girona at 51% and given a win for Castellón 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: H. Zamorano 7' for Girona, A. Sienra 81' for Castellón, A. Garcia 86' for Castellón. Sent off: Abel Ruíz (Girona) 52'. On expected goals it finished 1.14–3.71.