12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

Girona vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Girona 1-2 Castellón.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Girona, 27% draw, 22% Castellón — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Girona at 51% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Girona vs Castellón

Girona

  • W2-0away to Sporting Gijon5 September 2026
  • W5-2Las Palmas29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Cordoba21 August 2026
  • D1-1Leganes16 August 2026

Castellón

  • W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
  • D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Girona5212107+37
1Castellón541072+513

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Girona vs Castellón

  • 29 July 2026Girona 3–3 CastellónFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 February 2021Girona 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
  • 24 October 2020Castellón 0–1 GironaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Girona and Castellón

Girona

  • Y. Asprilla4 goals

Castellón

  • Ousmane Camara2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.