Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Real Madrid, 26% draw, 23% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Madrid at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Line-ups
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 7Vinícius JúniorM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 2Raúl AsencioD
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 9EndrickF
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 15A. GülerM
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 6P. CissD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 36G. BouareM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 14G. TsitaishviliM
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 18Álvaro GarcíaM
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 20I. BalliuD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 30Adrián MolinaG
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 26Marco de las SíasD
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 37Rayane BelidF
Form going into Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Inter8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
- W2-1away to Espanyol22 August 2026
Rayo Vallecano
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Racing Santander5 September 2026
- L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Rayo Vallecano.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
- 1 February 2026Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 9 November 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real MadridLa Liga
- 9 March 2025Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 14 December 2024Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real MadridLa Liga
- 18 February 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé132
- J. Bellingham43
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kylian Mbappé (penalty) 14' for Real Madrid, Álvaro Fernández Carreras 17' for Real Madrid, Jude Bellingham 35' for Real Madrid, Sergio Camello 51' for Rayo Vallecano, Kylian Mbappé 90+1' for Real Madrid.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.