12 September 2026, 14:15 UTC

Osasuna vs Espanyol La Liga prediction & result

Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
Full time0 2

Final score: Osasuna 0-2 Espanyol.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Osasuna, 29% draw, 29% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Osasuna at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Osasuna0%Draw1%Espanyol99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Roberto Fernández Jaénassist: Marcos Fernández
17'
Roberto Fernández Jaénassist: Omar El Hilali
Rubén García
18'
Enrique Barja Alfonso
30'
Jon Moncayola
39'
40'
Clemens Riedel
45'
Omar El Hilali
🔁Diego Ricoout: Abel Bretones
45'
🔁Íñigo Arguibideout: Asier Osambela
59'
🔁Rubén Garcíaout: Raul Moro
60'
🔁Enrique Barja Alfonsoout: Jonathan Dubasin
60'
66'
🔁Marcos Fernándezout: Gabriel Moscardo
66'
🔁Tyrhys Dolanout: Álex Calatrava Torrado
🔁Raul Garcíaout: Romain Del Castillo
71'
80'
🔁Roberto Fernández Jaénout: Pere Milla
80'
🔁Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasaout: Bryan Zaragoza
89'
🔁Eduardo Expósito Jaénout: Vanja Drkusic

Match stats — Osasuna vs Espanyol

61%Possession39%
11Shots6
4On target3
3Corners4

Line-ups

Osasuna 4-2-3-1
  • 1Sergio HerreraG
  • 27Íñigo ArguibideD
  • 24CatenaD
  • 48R. YeboahD
  • 15Diego RicoD
  • 7MoncayolaM
  • 8Iker MuñozM
  • 14Rubén GarcíaM
  • 9Raúl GarcíaM
  • 11Kike BarjaM
  • 17A. BudimirF
Substitutes
  • 13Aitor FernándezG
  • 31Rafa FernándezG
  • 6Lucas TorróM
  • 35U. SantosD
  • 18Raul MoroF
  • 29Asier OsambelaM
  • 30Asier BonelF
  • 22F. BoyomoD
  • 23Abel BretonesD
Coach: Luis Miguel Ramis
Espanyol 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. DmitrovićG
  • 23O. El HilaliD
  • 5C. RiedelD
  • 6L. CabreraD
  • 21Roger HinojoD
  • 8Edu ExpósitoM
  • 4Urko GonzálezM
  • 18Marcos FernándezM
  • 28Javier HernandezM
  • 24T. DolanM
  • 9Roberto FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 22Álex CalatravaF
  • 26Rafel BauzàM
  • 16V. DrkušićD
  • 1Ángel FortuñoG
  • 20Gabriel MoscardoM
  • 3Q. HartmanD
  • 17Jofre CarrerasF
  • 32J. A. LopezD
  • 10Pol LozanoM
Coach: Manolo González

Form going into Osasuna vs Espanyol

Osasuna

  • L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
  • W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026

Espanyol

  • D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
  • L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Osasuna6213512-77
8Espanyol621397+27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Espanyol

  • 12 September 2026Osasuna 0–2 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 17 May 2026Osasuna 1–2 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 31 August 2025Espanyol 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
  • 18 May 2025Osasuna 2–0 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 14 December 2024Espanyol 0–0 OsasunaLa Liga
  • 4 February 2023Espanyol 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga

Leading scorers: Osasuna and Espanyol

Osasuna

  • A. Budimir4 goals

Espanyol

  • Roberto Fernández6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.