23 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: C. Marquez
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Pasto.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Atletico Nacional, 21% draw, 12% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Nacional at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Nacional99%Draw1%Deportivo Pasto0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Cardonaassist: J. Zapata
13'
X. Rios
41'
50'
F. Torijano
⚽R. Escorcia
52'
A. Reyes
56'
61'
🔁D. Chavezout: J. Micolta Piedahita
61'
🔁M. Gilout: P. Preciado
🔁R. Escorciaout: E. Benitez
65'
🔁E. Cabreraout: K. Parra Atehortua
65'
🔁E. Cardonaout: N. Rodriguez
65'
68'
🔁J. Perlazaout: J. Mendez
69'
🔁N. Gilout: J. Rios
C. Haydar
73'
🔁C. Haydarout: W. Tesillo
73'
🔁S. Rojasout: M. Uribe
73'
80'
🔁H. Mancillaout: S. Cordoba
⚽J. Rengifoassist: N. Rodriguez
90'

Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

63%Possession37%
19Shots5
7On target0
3Corners2
1.06xG0.15

Goals against chances

Atletico Nacional3 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
Deportivo Pasto0 from 0.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional 4-3-3
  • 34Franco ArmaniG
  • 31Xavi RiosD
  • 15Andres ReyesD
  • 4César HaydarD
  • 20Milton CascoD
  • 28Simon RojasM
  • 80Juan ZapataM
  • 36Jose Rafael EscorciaM
  • 22Elías CabreraF
  • 10Edwin CardonaF
  • 19Juan Manuel RengifoF
Substitutes
  • 13Nicolás RodríguezF
  • 30Kevin ParraM
  • 32Emanuel BenitezF
  • 16William TesilloD
  • 8Matheus UribeM
  • 25Luis MarquinezG
  • 27Yeicar PerlazaD
  • 14Elkin RiveroM
  • 40Jhoan QuesadaD
Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
  • 12Geovanni BangueraG
  • 33Mateo GaravitoD
  • 2Fainer TorijanoD
  • 5Nicolas Gil UribeD
  • 27Hervin GoyesD
  • 10Diego ChávezM
  • 8Enrique SerjeM
  • 15Harrinson MancillaM
  • 25Franco LeysM
  • 16Mayer GilF
  • 7Jonathan PerlazaF
Substitutes
  • 18Joider MicoltaM
  • 19Patrick PreciadoF
  • 17John MéndezF
  • 3Joyce OssaD
  • 29Santiago CórdobaF
  • 36Julián QuiñonesD
  • 32Matías PisanoM
  • 23Yeiler GóezM
  • 13Luis MarquínezG

Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

Atletico Nacional

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Cucuta20 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Chico17 October 2026
  • D0-0Deportes Tolima8 October 2026
  • W3-1Junior1 October 2026
  • D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026

Deportivo Pasto

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Alianza Valledupar20 October 2026
  • D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
  • W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Nacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Deportivo Pasto failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Deportivo Pasto had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Atletico Nacional1912433818+2040
18Deportivo Pasto1943121330-1715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

  • 29 March 2026Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 18 October 2025Deportivo Pasto 2–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 30 April 2025Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 5 December 2024Atletico Nacional 2–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 24 November 2024Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 6 October 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A

Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto

Atletico Nacional

GoalsAssists

  • A. Morelos166
  • A. Sarmiento117
  • E. Cardona104

Deportivo Pasto

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Nacional beat Deportivo Pasto 3–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Nacional its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: E. Cardona 13' for Atletico Nacional, R. Escorcia 52' for Atletico Nacional, J. Rengifo 90' for Atletico Nacional. On expected goals it finished 1.06–0.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Nacional a 47.3% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 53.1% after a win, 30.7% after a draw, 21.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.1%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.

For Deportivo Pasto the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 73.3% going in: 46.3% after a win, 64.6% after a draw, 77.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.8%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.