America de Cali vs Cucuta Primera A prediction & result
Final score: America de Cali 3-1 Cucuta.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% America de Cali, 25% draw, 16% Cucuta — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
America de Cali at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — America de Cali vs Cucuta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jean FernandesG
- 88Tilman PalaciosD
- 3Dany RoseroD
- 2Marlon TorresD
- 22Nicolás HernándezD
- 6José CavadiaM
- 15Rafael CarrascalM
- 23Luis QuiñonesM
- 10Yeison GuzmánM
- 7Jhon MurilloM
- 21Tomás ÁngelF
- 17Jan LucumíF
- 30Omar BertelD
- 18Yani QuinteroM
- 24Cristian TovarD
- 12Juan MontoyaG
- 44Brayan CórdobaD
- 14Marcos MinaD
- 36Jhordy CamachoF
- 29Camilo AmuM
- 12Federico AbadíaG
- 26Yair Joao Abonia VasquezD
- 2Hernán LópesD
- 4Jhon QuiñónesD
- 30Brayan MontañoD
- 5Victor MejiaM
- 20Dayan PérezM
- 10Leider BerdugoM
- 77Carlos RenteríaM
- 11Gustavo TorresM
- 9Jaime PeraltaF
- 1Juan David RamírezG
- 3Diego CalcaterraD
- 27Mauricio DuarteD
- 21Marlon CarabaliF
- 8Juan CeballosM
- 29Lucas RíosM
- 33Sebastián TamaraM
- 16Kevin LondoñoM
- 32Jhonatan AgudeloF
Form going into America de Cali vs Cucuta
America de Cali
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Bucaramanga18 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente Medellin12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
Cucuta
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Atletico Nacional20 October 2026
- W1-0away to Chico11 October 2026
- W4-0Deportivo Pereira4 October 2026
- W2-1Llaneros26 September 2026
What these results say
- America de Cali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- America de Cali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for America de Cali.
- Cucuta won every one of these 4 matches.
- Cucuta scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cucuta kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 15 | +16 | 36 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Cucuta
- 5 April 2026Cucuta 2–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 13 November 2020Cucuta 0–3 America de CaliPrimera A
- 26 October 2019Cucuta 3–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 3 May 2019America de Cali 2–0 CucutaPrimera A
- 17 October 2016America de Cali 1–1 CucutaPrimera B
- 30 May 2016Cucuta 2–0 America de CaliPrimera B
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Cucuta
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán206
Cucuta
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
America de Cali beat Cucuta 3–1. The model had made a win for America de Cali its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Yeison Guzmán 5' for America de Cali, Luis Quiñones 11' for America de Cali, Dayan Pérez 42' for Cucuta, Jan Lucumí 90+4' for America de Cali. On expected goals it finished 1.05–0.97.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave America de Cali a 24.3% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 29.9% after a win, 12.8% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.9%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.
For Cucuta the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 40.0% going in: 71.2% after a win, 45.2% after a draw, 33.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.2%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on America de Cali v Cucuta has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 64% / 22% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 59% / 25% / 16%: the biggest move is America de Cali's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- America de Cali win59%▼ −5
- Draw25%▲ +3
- Cucuta win16%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.