Torino vs Monza Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Torino 3-2 Monza.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Torino, 25% draw, 34% Monza — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Torino at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torino vs Monza
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20Lucas PerriG
- 23Saúl CocoD
- 44A. IsmajliD
- 15P. ComuzzoD
- 45R. BelghaliM
- 8R. MandragoraM
- 28K. Fitz-JimM
- 77A. CacciamaniM
- 10N. VlašićM
- 19C. AdamsM
- 18G. SimeoneF
- 3C. BiraghiD
- 5E. CömertD
- 22C. CasadeiM
- 7Z. AboukhlalF
- 66G. GineitisM
- 17S. KulenovićF
- 26D. MascardiG
- 11G. OristanioM
- 2N. PattersonD
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 44A. CarboniD
- 19S. BirindelliM
- 8M. OndoaM
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 47Dany MotaM
- 46Jay RobinsonM
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 26P. CiurriaF
- 21L. ColomboM
- 10P. CutroneF
- 90M. FolorunshoM
- 11O. ForsonF
- 60E. KouadioD
- 80M. MoutM
- 16C. NgongeF
- 43A. StrajnarG
Form going into Torino vs Monza
Torino
Serie A
- W3-0away to Parma19 October 2026
Monza
Serie A
- W4-0Cagliari19 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monza vs Torino
Monza and Torino have met 7 times in the records we hold, Torino has won 3 of them to Monza's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Torino won the last one 3–2 on 23 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Torino | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Oct 2026
Serie ATorino 3–2 Monza - 1 Sep 2026
Coppa ItaliaTorino 0–1 Monza - 2 Mar 2025
Serie AMonza 0–2 Torino - 24 Nov 2024
Serie ATorino 1–1 Monza - 30 Mar 2024
Serie ATorino 1–0 Monza - 11 Nov 2023
Serie AMonza 1–1 Torino - 7 May 2023
Serie ATorino 1–1 Monza
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Monza's attack rates 11% above Torino's, and Torino concede 22% fewer than Monza. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Torino and Monza
Torino
GoalsAssists
- C. Adams40
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Torino beat Monza 3–2. The model had made a win for Torino its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kian Fitz-Jim 39' for Torino, Gustavo Varela 47' for Monza, Rafik Belghali 61' for Torino, Nikola Vlašić 72' for Torino, Nathan Patterson (own goal) 90+4' for Monza. On expected goals it finished 1.40–0.68.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Torino a 5.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.6% after a win, 4.9% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.6%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
For Monza the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.5% going in: 11.8% after a win, 17.1% after a draw, 19.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.3%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Torino v Monza has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 42% / 26% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Monza's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Torino win41%▼ −1
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Monza win34%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.