23 October 2026, 20:15 UTC

Atletico Grau vs ADT Primera División prediction & result

Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, Piura
Referee: D. Ureta
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Atletico Grau 1-1 ADT.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Atletico Grau, 29% draw, 22% ADT — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Grau at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Grau4%Draw94%ADT2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Christian Vasquez
6'
•Aldair Vásquez
22'
23'
Alejandro Ramos
⚽Patricio Álvarez (pen)
26'
Christian Vasquez
27'
Gabriel Alfaro
45+2'
🔁Aldair Vásquezout: D. Rodríguez
45'
Ignacio Tapia
58'
61'
⚽Horacio Benincasaassist: Aldair Rodríguez
🔁Adrián Fernándezout: Mauro Da Luz
68'
🔁Diego Barretoout: Paulo De La Cruz
69'
69'
Juan Valencia
73'
Aldair Rodríguez
76'
🔁Said Peraltaout: Jonathan Bauman
77'
Said Peralta
🔁Freddy Oncoyout: Eslyn Imanol Correa Vilela
82'
🔁Gabriel Alfaroout: Pablo Lavandeira
82'
88'
•Jonathan Bauman
88'
Jonathan Bauman
89'
Joao Rojas
89'
🔁Angel Ojedaout: J. Alvino
89'
🔁Aldair Rodríguezout: Aylton Mazzo
D. Rodríguez
90+6'

Match stats — Atletico Grau vs ADT

25%Possession75%
10Shots21
3On target8
3Corners4
1.84xG1.48

Goals against chances

Atletico Grau1 from 1.84 xGless than the chances were worth
ADT1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Grau 5-4-1
  • 1P. ÁlvarezG
  • 8C. VásquezD
  • 27R. TapiaD
  • 2L. AcevedoD
  • 3I. TapiaD
  • 25G. AlfaroD
  • 7D. BarretoM
  • 13F. OncoyM
  • 5R. GuarderasM
  • 20A. VásquezM
  • 99A. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 21E. CorreaM
  • 33J. CalderónG
  • 96L. BenítesM
  • 16J. AtaupillcoD
  • 15P. LavandeiraM
  • 4D. RodríguezD
  • 24Yamir Ruidíaz MisitichF
  • 77M. da LuzF
  • 10P. de la CruzM
Coach: G. Ameli
ADT 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. ValenciaG
  • 98A. RamosD
  • 99J. PereyraD
  • 28J. SotoD
  • 44H. BenincasaD
  • 6Á. OjedaM
  • 16L. PérezM
  • 77Juan David Lucumí CueroM
  • 7J. RojasM
  • 22A. RodríguezM
  • 24S. PeraltaF
Substitutes
  • 33C. SolísG
  • 15Josué AlvinoM
  • 32J. BaumanF
  • 26Jhojan GarcilazoF
  • 25S. GarcíaM
  • 27A. HidalgoM
  • 18Aylton MazzoF
  • 31J. NavarroD
  • 3L. RugelD
Coach: V. Rivera

Form going into Atletico Grau vs ADT

Atletico Grau

Primera División

  • L1-3away to Alianza Lima18 October 2026

ADT

Primera División

  • L1-2away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Atletico Grau33107163241-937
15ADT33711153648-1231

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Grau vs ADT

  • 2 May 2026ADT 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
  • 31 August 2025Atletico Grau 2–0 ADTPrimera División
  • 15 February 2025ADT 4–3 Atletico GrauPrimera División
  • 4 August 2024ADT 1–2 Atletico GrauPrimera División
  • 25 February 2024Atletico Grau 2–2 ADTPrimera División
  • 23 July 2023ADT 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División

The result against the call

Atletico Grau and ADT drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Grau at 49% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Patricio Álvarez (penalty) 26' for Atletico Grau, Horacio Benincasa 61' for ADT. Sent off: Christian Vasquez (Atletico Grau) 27', Jonathan Bauman (ADT) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.84–1.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ADT a 49.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 27.6% after a win, 46.9% after a draw, 59.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 46.9%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.