21 October 2026, 23:15 UTC

Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Bello Horizonte, Villavicencio
Referee: Steven Camargo, Colombia
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Llaneros 0-3 Deportivo Cali.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Llaneros, 34% draw, 35% Deportivo Cali — fair odds of 3.23, 2.94 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Cali at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Llaneros0%Draw1%Deportivo Cali99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽J. Martinezassist: D. Giraldo
14'
K. Sandoval
H. H. Mena Posada
21'
22'
⚽N. Benedetti
K. Rincon
42'
44'
•J. C. Caldera Alvis
🔁L. Mirandaout: J. Contreras
46'
🔁K. Rinconout: M. Sierra
46'
63'
⚽Titi
🔁J. Castillaout: F. Castaneda
66'
🔁Y. Menaout: C. Cortes
66'
J. Ramirez
67'
72'
🔁K. Sandovalout: J. Moya
73'
🔁N. Benedettiout: E. Reynoso
🔁J. Ramirezout: Kelvin Osorio
79'
H. H. Mena Posada
81'
H. H. Mena Posada
81'
85'
🔁Titiout: C. Bacca
85'
🔁R. Pajaroout: M. Correa
87'
🔁E. Velascoout: J. Tello

Match stats — Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali

57%Possession43%
9Shots9
2On target7
6Corners3
0.62xG0.45

Goals against chances

Llaneros0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth
Deportivo Cali3 from 0.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Llaneros 4-2-3-1
  • 22Roameth RomañaG
  • 4Juan PertuzD
  • 2Howell MenaD
  • 21Francisco MezaD
  • 16Jhojan EscobarD
  • 14Kevin RincónM
  • 13Juan CastillaM
  • 10Neider OspinaM
  • 8Juan RamirezM
  • 7Luis MirandaM
  • 17Yorleys MenaF
Substitutes
  • 6Marlon SierraM
  • 70Joel ContrerasF
  • 32Frank CastañedaF
  • 9Carlos CortésF
  • 33Kelvin OsorioM
  • 12Juan LoaizaG
  • 36Alison SánchezD
  • 26Dennys QuinteroD
  • 94Jimmy MedrandaD
Deportivo Cali 4-2-3-1
  • 1Pedro GalleseG
  • 16Keimer SandovalD
  • 12José CalderaD
  • 4Fernando ÁlvarezD
  • 28Edwin VelascoD
  • 8Daniel GiraldoM
  • 13Ronaldo PájaroM
  • 19Johan MartínezM
  • 21Nicolás BenedettiM
  • 14Alexis ManyomaM
  • 23Steven RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 2José MoyaD
  • 10Emanuel ReynosoM
  • 36Miguel CorreaM
  • 70Carlos BaccaF
  • 26Juan José TelloD
  • 38Alejandro RodríguezG
  • 20Eduard BelloF
  • 9Juan DinennoF
  • 29Kevin SuárezM

Form going into Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali

Llaneros

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Santa Fe18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Once Caldas10 October 2026
  • L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Cucuta26 September 2026
  • W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026

Deportivo Cali

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Junior19 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira10 October 2026
  • W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
  • W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026

What these results say

  • Llaneros scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Deportivo Cali kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Cali had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Llaneros197392124-324
3Deportivo Cali199822812+1635

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali

  • 12 April 2026Deportivo Cali 1–1 LlanerosPrimera A
  • 2 August 2025Deportivo Cali 0–3 LlanerosPrimera A
  • 18 February 2025Llaneros 0–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A

Leading scorers: Llaneros and Deportivo Cali

Llaneros

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Deportivo Cali

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rodríguez113

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Cali won 3–0 at Llaneros. The model had made a win for Deportivo Cali its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Martinez 11' for Deportivo Cali, N. Benedetti 22' for Deportivo Cali, Titi 63' for Deportivo Cali. Sent off: H. H. Mena Posada (Llaneros) 81'. On expected goals it finished 0.62–0.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Llaneros a 13.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 26.4% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 5.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.2%, 8.7 points lower than before the match.

For Deportivo Cali the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 4.5% going in: 8.3% after a win, 2.9% after a draw, 1.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.3%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.