23 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Chico vs Bucaramanga Primera A prediction & result

Estadio La Independencia, Tunja
Referee: Carlos Betancur, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Chico 1-0 Bucaramanga.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Chico, 29% draw, 49% Bucaramanga — fair odds of 4.55, 3.45 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bucaramanga at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chico95%Draw5%Bucaramanga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
F. Hinestroza
46'
🔁A. Gutierrezout: J. Salazar
59'
🔁F. Hinestrozaout: O. Albornoz
59'
🔁Fabryout: L. Flores
59'
🔁D. Novoaout: L. Matheus
Cardenas
61'
⚽A. Mayaassist: E. Sarria
64'
🔁A. Mayaout: I. Camargo
70'
🔁E. Sarriaout: D. A. Ramirez Raigosa
75'
🔁J. Pimentelout: S. Viveros
75'
🔁Cardenasout: S. Salazar
84'
J. Diaz
84'
88'
🔁N. Castrillonout: B. Caicedo
I. Camargo
90+1'

Match stats — Chico vs Bucaramanga

50%Possession50%
14Shots7
5On target2
3Corners3
1.08xG0.38

Goals against chances

Chico1 from 1.08 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bucaramanga0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chico 4-4-2
  • 1David AgudeloG
  • 15Sander NavarroD
  • 2Daniel PolancoD
  • 4Jefferson MenaD
  • 14Cristian BlancoD
  • 17Estiven SarriaM
  • 6Juan DiazM
  • 28Jesús CárdenasM
  • 16Santiago MeraM
  • 21Jacobo PimentelF
  • 22Alejandro MayaF
Substitutes
  • 9Isaac CamargoF
  • 20Sebastián ViverosM
  • 11Delio RamírezM
  • 8Sebastian SalazarM
  • 12Branndon ZapataG
  • 18Junior PalaciosD
  • 19Jeronimo PimentelM
  • 24Cristián MosqueraM
  • 29Luis Carabalí CarreraF
Bucaramanga 3-4-3
  • 12Diego NovoaG
  • 6Nilson CastrillónD
  • 24José OrtizD
  • 4José GarcíaD
  • 19Aldair GutiérrezM
  • 21Felix CharrupíM
  • 22Fabry CastroM
  • 8Freddy HinestrozaM
  • 17Emerson BatallaF
  • 27Luciano PonsF
  • 10Fabián SambuezaF
Substitutes
  • 11Fredy SalazarF
  • 16Luis MatheusG
  • 80Omar AlbornozD
  • 28Leonardo FloresM
  • 9Brandon CaicedoF
  • 3Martín ReaD
  • 7Kevin LondoñoM
  • 20Aldair ZárateF
  • 5Adrián MurilloF

Form going into Chico vs Bucaramanga

Chico

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Deportivo Pereira20 October 2026
  • L1-4Atletico Nacional17 October 2026
  • L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
  • W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026

Bucaramanga

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1America de Cali18 October 2026
  • D1-1Águilas Doradas13 October 2026
  • W3-1Junior4 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
  • W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Chico failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bucaramanga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bucaramanga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Chico195591529-1420
4Bucaramanga199823117+1435

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chico vs Bucaramanga

  • 12 April 2026Bucaramanga 5–0 ChicoPrimera A
  • 12 July 2025Bucaramanga 1–1 ChicoPrimera A
  • 10 June 2025Bucaramanga 3–2 ChicoCopa Colombia
  • 24 January 2025Chico 1–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 6 November 2024Chico 1–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 20 April 2024Bucaramanga 2–3 ChicoPrimera A

Leading scorers: Chico and Bucaramanga

Chico

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Bucaramanga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Pons155
  • E. Batalla126

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chico beat Bucaramanga 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Bucaramanga at 49% and given a win for Chico 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: A. Maya 64' for Chico. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chico a 54.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.6% after a win, 52.1% after a draw, 65.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.6%, 27.5 points lower than before the match.

For Bucaramanga the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 14.7% going in: 20.2% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 3.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.9%, 10.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chico v Bucaramanga has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 25% / 29% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 22% / 29% / 49%: the biggest move is Chico's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Chico win22%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Bucaramanga win49%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.