Santa Fe vs Jaguares Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Santa Fe 2-1 Jaguares.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Santa Fe, 21% draw, 14% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Santa Fe at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santa Fe vs Jaguares
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Weimar AsprillaG
- 13Helibelton PalaciosD
- 18Emanuel OliveraD
- 15Ivan ScarpetaD
- 32Christian MaflaD
- 7Jhojan TorresM
- 16Daniel TorresM
- 77Jader ObrianM
- 9Franco FagúndezM
- 25Emerson RodríguezM
- 11Hugo RodallegaF
- 4Mateo PuertaD
- 10Alexis ZapataM
- 6Kilian ToscanoF
- 8Omar FernándezF
- 14Luis Angel PalaciosF
- 31Juan EspitiaG
- 43Jean CaicedoD
- 39Cristhian PortocarreroM
- 17Maximiliano LoveraF
- 12Franklin MosqueraG
- 4Juan FrancoD
- 6Jonathan LoveraD
- 29Carlos HenaoD
- 18Luis JiménezD
- 5Royscer ColpaM
- 21Rafael BustamanteM
- 7Wilfrido De la RosaM
- 16Johan BeltránM
- 9Johar MejíaM
- 11Andrés RenteríaF
- 10Cristian AlvarezM
- 32Jose YanezM
- 3Jerson MalagónD
- 17Darwin LopezF
- 24Santiago CubidesF
- 1Diego MartínezG
- 2Andrés Felipe Alfonso CiprianM
- 28Diego ZuluagaM
- 30Ronal PérezM
Form going into Santa Fe vs Jaguares
Santa Fe
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Llaneros18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
Jaguares
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Millonarios17 October 2026
- W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
What these results say
- Santa Fe conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Santa Fe had two goals or fewer.
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Santa Fe | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 18 | +12 | 34 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santa Fe vs Jaguares
- 17 February 2026Jaguares 3–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 15 November 2024Santa Fe 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 28 April 2024Jaguares 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
- 20 July 2023Santa Fe 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 27 January 2023Jaguares 2–2 Santa FePrimera A
- 17 October 2022Jaguares 2–1 Santa FePrimera A
Leading scorers: Santa Fe and Jaguares
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega173
- F. Fagúndez105
- N. Bustos105
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería123
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santa Fe beat Jaguares 2–1. The model had made a win for Santa Fe its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: F. Fagundez 5' for Santa Fe, F. Fagundez 81' for Santa Fe, A. Renteria 90+2' for Jaguares. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.09.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santa Fe a 91.1% chance to finish in the top eight: 95.2% after a win, 83.2% after a draw, 75.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.2%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
For Jaguares the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 58.8% going in: 29.3% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 64.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.2%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Santa Fe v Jaguares has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 56% / 26% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 65% / 21% / 14%: the biggest move is Santa Fe's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Santa Fe win65%▲ +9
- Draw21%▼ −5
- Jaguares win14%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.