8 November 2026, 16:15 UTC

Macara vs Universidad Catolica Quito Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Referee: Juan Carlos Andrade Arreaga
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Macara 2-2 Universidad Catolica Quito.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Macara, 27% draw, 26% Universidad Catolica Quito — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Macara at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Macara5%Draw92%Universidad Catolica Quito3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽José Fajardoassist: Daniel Clavijo
S. Etchebarne
29'
•Jose Marrufo
29'
45'
🔁Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Peredaout: Eddy Mejia
54'
⚽José Fajardoassist: Daniel Clavijo
⚽Franco Posse
56'
⚽M. Viera
58'
🔁Jordán Josué Mohor Nazarenoout: Luis Loor
71'
🔁M. Vieraout: J. Klinger
71'
83'
🔁José Fajardoout: Byron Palacios
83'
🔁Jonnathan Minaout: Jimmy Evans
87'
🔁Daniel Clavijoout: Rooney Troya
🔁Denilson Bolanosout: Juan Espinoza
87'
87'
🔁Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyoout: Gregori Anangonó
🔁Martín Alejandro Tello Escobarout: Carlos Caicedo
90'
🔁augustin campanaout: Matías Miranda
90'

Match stats — Macara vs Universidad Catolica Quito

42%Possession58%
14Shots13
5On target5
3Corners8
0.96xG2.1

Goals against chances

Macara2 from 0.96 xGmore than the chances were worth
Universidad Catolica Quito2 from 2.10 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Macara 4-1-4-1
  • 1R. RodriguezG
  • 25J. BolañosD
  • 21S. EtchebarneD
  • 14J. MarrufoD
  • 27J. MohorD
  • 16J. CazaresM
  • 28A. CampanaM
  • 5J. EstacioM
  • 15M. TelloM
  • 20M. VieraM
  • 9F. PosseF
Substitutes
  • 87J. KlingerF
  • 26M. MedrandaD
  • 10M. MirandaM
  • 19P. RamosF
  • 50C. CaicedoM
  • 13L. AyalaD
  • 77J. ChaláF
  • 12D. CueroG
  • 3Juan EspinozaD
Coach: G. Sanguinetti
Universidad Catolica Quito 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas Cueva GordilloG
  • 24Darwin Carlos Nazareno ArroyoD
  • 33L. CangáD
  • 3Jose GarcíaD
  • 14J. MinaD
  • 10F. MartínezM
  • 15L. MorenoM
  • 9A. LondoñoM
  • 8D. ClavijoM
  • 32M. AlonsoM
  • 7J. FajardoF
Substitutes
  • 37C. MedinaD
  • 29G. AnangonóD
  • 5J. CacciabueM
  • 11J. EvansF
  • 30E. MejíaM
  • 18B. PalaciosF
  • 23Alex Andrés Rodríguez ReascosM
  • 19M. SevillanoM
  • 17R. TroyaM
Coach: D. Martínez

Form going into Macara vs Universidad Catolica Quito

Macara

Liga Pro

  • W3-0Barcelona SC31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to LDU de Quito24 October 2026
  • W1-0Independiente del Valle17 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Universidad Catolica Quito11 October 2026

Universidad Catolica Quito

Liga Pro

  • L1-2Aucas1 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Independiente del Valle23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Barcelona SC18 October 2026
  • L0-1Macara11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Macara won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Macara scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Macara kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Universidad Catolica Quito did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Universidad Catolica Quito conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Universidad Catolica Quito had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Macara3620795237+1567
3Universidad Catolica Quito361412105635+2154

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Macara vs Universidad Catolica Quito

  • 11 October 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 0–1 MacaraLiga Pro
  • 18 August 2026Macara 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 24 April 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 4–0 MacaraLiga Pro
  • 27 July 2025Macara 1–4 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 6 April 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 1–0 MacaraLiga Pro
  • 30 November 2024Macara 1–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Macara and Universidad Catolica Quito

Macara

GoalsAssists

  • F. Posse175
  • A. Campana123

Universidad Catolica Quito

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fajardo133
  • M. Alonso84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Macara and Universidad Catolica Quito drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Macara at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: José Fajardo 22' for Universidad Catolica Quito, José Fajardo 54' for Universidad Catolica Quito, Franco Posse 56' for Macara, M. Viera 58' for Macara. On expected goals it finished 0.96–2.10.

How the call on Macara v Universidad Catolica Quito has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Macara's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Macara win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Universidad Catolica Quito win26%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.