Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Delfin SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Mushuc Runa SC, 27% draw, 28% Delfin SC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Mushuc Runa SC at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 42W. PabónG
- 99Cristopher Adonis Angulo CaicedoD
- 4Ronny Alfonso Biojo PreciadoD
- 50J. CusmeD
- 33M. HernándezD
- 5Esteban Nicolás Dávila AlarcónM
- 18J. GonzalezM
- 19B. CorozoM
- 11N. BazánF
- 14E. CaicedoF
- 28M. PereaF
- 52D. MerinoM
- 30F. CarabalíD
- 53J. BrayeM
- 22J. CollaguazoG
- 2J. FlorD
- 23L. LemosM
- 7T. MindaF
- 37J. QuiñonesD
- 9R. TufinoM
- 21B. HerasG
- 77B. HernándezD
- 32A. BedoyaD
- 5O. MedinaD
- 14E. ZúñigaD
- 80B. PeñaM
- 34G. HerediaM
- 18J. MorochoM
- 50T. OzaetaM
- 39Edison Caicedo Peralta EberF
- 10Danny Gabriel Luna MoránF
- 22J. CárdenasG
- 70E. EspinozaM
- 8K. MorenoM
- 17E. RubioD
- 99Leao TenorioF
- 78K. UshiñaM
- 7A. ÁlvarezM
- 23L. CornejoM
- 16L. CastroM
Form going into Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC
Mushuc Runa SC
Liga Pro
- L2-3Manta FC3 November 2026
- L0-3away to Tecnico Universitario26 October 2026
- D1-1Orense SC19 October 2026
- L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026
Delfin SC
Liga Pro
- W3-1Deportivo Cuenca31 October 2026
- L0-4away to Orense SC24 October 2026
- W4-2Manta FC18 October 2026
- W3-2Mushuc Runa SC9 October 2026
What these results say
- Mushuc Runa SC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Delfin SC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Delfin SC had three goals or more.
- Delfin SC won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 43 |
| 14 | Delfin SC | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC
- 9 October 2026Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 28 August 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 3 May 2026Delfin SC 1–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 15 June 2025Delfin SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 18 February 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 8 November 2024Delfin SC 4–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC
Mushuc Runa SC
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Delfin SC
GoalsAssists
- F. Ayunta111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mushuc Runa SC beat Delfin SC 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Mushuc Runa SC at 45%. The goals: Tomson Minda 56' for Mushuc Runa SC, Thiago Ozaeta 77' for Delfin SC, Jackson Alexander González Simisterra 88' for Mushuc Runa SC. Sent off: Juan Carlos León Zambrano (Delfin SC) 61', Bryan Corozo (Mushuc Runa SC) 77'. On expected goals it finished 1.80–0.29.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mushuc Runa SC a 10.6% chance to win the league: 16.4% after a win, 6.8% after a draw, 2.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.4%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.
For Delfin SC the question was the chance to win the league, 3.1% going in: 8.0% after a win, 2.5% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Mushuc Runa SC v Delfin SC has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Mushuc Runa SC's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Mushuc Runa SC win45%▼ −5
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Delfin SC win28%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.