23 August 2026, 01:00 UTC

Austin vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result

Q2 Stadium, Austin
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Austin 1-1 Philadelphia Union.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Austin, 22% draw, 54% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 4.17, 4.55 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Philadelphia Union at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Austin vs Philadelphia Union

Austin

  • W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026
  • L1-2FC Dallas17 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids2 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Houston Dynamo26 July 2026
  • W3-1Seattle Sounders23 July 2026

Philadelphia Union

  • D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
  • W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026
  • W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
  • W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
  • W3-1New York Red Bulls22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Austin vs Philadelphia Union

  • 17 March 2024Austin 2–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 23 January 2024Austin 1–1 Philadelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 January 2023Philadelphia Union 3–2 AustinFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Austin and Philadelphia Union

Austin

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Philadelphia Union

  • M. Iloski12 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.