29 October 2026, 02:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result

Lumen Field, Seattle
Referee: Lorenzo Hernandez
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Seattle Sounders 0-1 Houston Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Seattle Sounders, 30% draw, 29% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Seattle Sounders at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Seattle Sounders0%Draw4%Houston Dynamo96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽Lucas Halterassist: Mateusz Bogusz
🔁Nouhou Toloout: Paul Arriola
45'
🔁Jesús Ferreiraout: Jordan Morris
59'
🔁Kalani Kossa-Rienziout: Peter Kingston
59'
🔁Hassani Dotsonout: Snyder Brunell
59'
Peter Kingston
65'
72'
🔁Lyle Fosterout: Duncan McGuire
83'
🔁Diadie Samassekouout: Antônio Carlos
🔁Alexander Roldanout: Caden Clark
85'
87'
🔁Ibrahim Aliyuout: Duane Holmes
87'
Agustin Resch

Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo

70%Possession30%
21Shots2
5On target1
10Corners1
2.02xG0.32

Goals against chances

Seattle Sounders0 from 2.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Houston Dynamo1 from 0.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
  • 26A. ThomasG
  • 85K. Kossa-RienziD
  • 16A. RoldanD
  • 25J. RagenD
  • 5N. ToloD
  • 31H. DotsonM
  • 7C. RoldanM
  • 27J. FerreiraM
  • 11A. RusnákM
  • 90S. GomezM
  • 9D. JoveljićF
Substitutes
  • 17P. ArriolaF
  • 37S. BrunellM
  • 8C. ClarkM
  • 24S. FreiG
  • 39S. HawkinsD
  • 20Kim Kee-HeeD
  • 45P. KingstonM
  • 13J. MorrisF
  • 4R. SailorD
Coach: B. Schmetzer
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. BondG
  • 11L. EnnaliD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 18D. SamassékouM
  • 6ArturM
  • 24A. IbrahimM
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 19M. BoguszM
  • 9L. FosterF
Substitutes
  • 3Antônio CarlosD
  • 22M. AranaM
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 17N. MarkanichF
  • 23D. McGuireF
  • 37G. RiveraM
  • 38Chibuike UkaegbuD
  • 35Logan ErbG
Coach: Ben Olsen

Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo

Seattle Sounders

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2away to San Diego25 October 2026
  • D1-1CF Montreal18 October 2026

Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer

  • D0-0Minnesota United FC25 October 2026
  • D2-2FC Dallas18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Seattle Sounders341210124446-246
5Houston Dynamo34149114343051

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo

  • 5 April 2026Houston Dynamo 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 11 May 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 23 March 2025Seattle Sounders 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 3 November 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 29 October 2024Seattle Sounders 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Houston Dynamo

Seattle Sounders

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Houston Dynamo won 1–0 at Seattle Sounders. The model had leaned towards a win for Seattle Sounders at 41% and given a win for Houston Dynamo 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Lucas Halter 26' for Houston Dynamo. On expected goals it finished 2.02–0.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Seattle Sounders a 95.6% chance to finish in the top nine: 100.0% after a win, 96.7% after a draw, 88.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.0%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.