Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 4-1 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Vancouver Whitecaps, 22% draw, 19% San Diego — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Vancouver Whitecaps at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18É. OcampoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 25R. GauldM
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 77Y. DiabyM
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 24B. WhiteF
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 22K. PokuF
- 6R. PrisoM
- 13T. MüllerF
- 59J. BadwalM
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
- 41N. DjordjevicD
- 4R. VeselinovićD
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 26M. DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 6J. TverskovM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 94C. BakambuF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 25I. PilcherD
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 8O. ValakariM
- 19D. VazquezM
- 70A. AlvaradoF
- 36David MimbangM
- 14B. B. ZambleF
Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Austin18 October 2026
San Diego
Major League Soccer
- D2-2Seattle Sounders25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 34 | +40 | 64 |
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego
- 24 May 2026San Diego 2–4 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 30 November 2025San Diego 1–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 20 July 2025San Diego 1–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 3–5 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and San Diego
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White202
San Diego
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vancouver Whitecaps beat San Diego 4–1. The model had made a win for Vancouver Whitecaps its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aleksa Cvetkovic 24' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Brian White 41' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Ryan Gauld 66' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Bruno Caicedo 76' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Onni Valakari 83' for San Diego. Sent off: Rayan Elloumi (Vancouver Whitecaps) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 2.70–2.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vancouver Whitecaps a 70.3% chance to finish top of the Western Conference: 81.0% after a win, 55.4% after a draw, 45.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.0%, 10.7 points higher than before the match.
For San Diego the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 54.3% going in: 18.7% after a win, 50.5% after a draw, 64.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.8%, 10.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.