Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bahia 0-0 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Bahia, 23% draw, 31% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.17, 4.35 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 46% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ronaldo StradaG
- 31R. GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 21S. RamosD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 7AdemirM
- 5Nicolas AcevedoM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 11RodrigoM
- 12Willian JoseF
- 9A. VelizF
- 17G. HerreraG
- 15Michel AraujoM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 27EveraldoF
- 4KanuD
- 3M. MorenoD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 1Leo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 3Tche TcheM
- 8JairM
- 28AdsonM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 7DavidM
- 20BrennerF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 37PabloG
- 2J. RodriguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 10J. RojasF
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 77C. SpinelliF
Form going into Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
Bahia
- D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Vasco da Gama
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 46 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
- 9 August 2026Bahia 0–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 12 February 2026Vasco da Gama 0–1 BahiaSerie A
- 23 November 2025Bahia 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 24 September 2025Vasco da Gama 3–1 BahiaSerie A
- 29 October 2024Vasco da Gama 3–2 BahiaSerie A
- 27 June 2024Bahia 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Bahia and Vasco da Gama
Bahia
- Luciano Juba9 goals1 assists
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.