Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Cruzeiro, 20% draw, 14% Mirassol — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 66% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81Otavio CostaG
- 23FagnerD
- 43Joao MarceloD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 5Ze LucasM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 70KenjiM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 51V. LamounierG
- 27G. RojasD
- 2Kaua MoraesD
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 8GersonM
- 12William FurtadoD
- 15Fabricio BrunoD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 97L. RodriguezF
- 90ThomazellaG
- 18EliasD
- 34Joao VictorD
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 80WallissonM
- 55G. CazonattiM
- 8DenilsonM
- 33EduardoM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 17FernandinhoF
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 25Neto Moura
- 77AlessonF
- 95Edson CariocaF
- 12Victor LuisD
- 10Chico KimM
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 7ShaylonM
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
Cruzeiro
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
Mirassol
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
- W2-1Gremio17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
- 9 August 2026Cruzeiro 3–1 MirassolSerie A
- 11 February 2026Mirassol 2–2 CruzeiroSerie A
- 18 August 2025Mirassol 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 29 March 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 MirassolSerie A
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Mirassol
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
- Kaio Jorge7 goals
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.