Botafogo vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 1-1 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Botafogo, 23% draw, 52% Fluminense — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 52% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Fluminense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 17WarlesonG
- 2VitinhoD
- 34Gabriel JustinoD
- 5Nahuel FerraresiD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 6Cristian MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 77Lucas VillalbaM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 14Jordan BarreraM
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 29PaulinhoD
- 9DaniloF
- 79Lucas EmanuelF
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 33Lucas MonzónD
- 4Mateo PonteD
- 21MarçalD
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnácioD
- 44JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 94OtávioM
- 16NonatoM
- 30Yeferson SoteldoM
- 10GansoM
- 90Kevin SernaM
- 19Rodrigo CastilloF
- 35HérculesM
- 17Agustín CanobbioF
- 32Luciano AcostaM
- 11Jefferson SavarinoF
- 7HulkF
- 27Marcelo PitalugaG
- 23GugaD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
Form going into Botafogo vs Fluminense
Botafogo
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
Fluminense
- D0-0Bahia30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio26 July 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 35 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Fluminense
- 9 August 2026Botafogo 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 12 February 2026Fluminense 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 1 February 2026Botafogo 0–1 FluminenseCarioca - 1
- 28 September 2025Fluminense 2–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 27 April 2025Botafogo 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 30 January 2025Botafogo 2–1 FluminenseCarioca - 1
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Fluminense
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.