Flamengo vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 2-0 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 69% Flamengo, 20% draw, 11% Vitoria — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 69% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Vitoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Leo OrtizD
- 4Leo PereiraD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 42A. da Silva VenturaG
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 8S. NiguezM
- 13DaniloD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 19G. PlataF
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 64Wallace YanF
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 70FabianoD
- 95Caique GoncalvesD
- 2E. BritezD
- 83JamersonD
- 6Emmanuel MartinezM
- 15WalaceM
- 33ErickM
- 88Ze VitorM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 91ReneF
- 71YuriG
- 35FintelmanG
- 11OsvaldoF
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 98MatheusinhoD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 23FabricioF
- 13RamonD
Form going into Flamengo vs Vitoria
Flamengo
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
- W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026
Vitoria
- L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 22 | +31 | 57 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Vitoria
- 9 August 2026Flamengo 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 15 May 2026Vitoria 2–0 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
- 23 April 2026Flamengo 2–1 VitoriaCopa Do Brasil
- 11 February 2026Vitoria 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 26 August 2025Flamengo 8–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 6 April 2025Vitoria 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Vitoria
Flamengo
- Pedro15 goals5 assists
- Samuel Lino9 goals7 assists
Vitoria
- Rene8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.