Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 3-2 Atletico Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Flamengo, 25% draw, 16% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Flamengo at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 19G. PlataM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 30J. FreitasF
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 44VitãoD
- 42AndrewG
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitãoD
- 13LyancoD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 23A. PreciadoM
- 8MayconM
- 21A. FrancoM
- 11BernardM
- 30Victor HugoF
- 17Igor GomesF
- 15K. CastañoM
- 5AlexsanderM
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 92DuduF
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 27A. MindaF
- 36K. PasciniD
- 25T. PérezM
Form going into Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo
Serie A
- W3-0away to Bahia18 October 2026
- W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A
- W1-0Coritiba17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Flamengo
Atletico Mineiro and Flamengo have met 7 times in the records we hold, Flamengo has won 4 of them to Atletico Mineiro's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Flamengo won the last one 3–2 on 26 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| Flamengo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 4 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Oct 2026
Serie AFlamengo 3–2 Atletico Mineiro - 26 Apr 2026
Serie AAtletico Mineiro 0–4 Flamengo - 26 Nov 2025
Serie AAtletico Mineiro 1–1 Flamengo - 6 Aug 2025
Copa Do BrasilAtletico Mineiro 0–1 Flamengo - 1 Aug 2025
Copa Do BrasilFlamengo 0–1 Atletico Mineiro - 27 Jul 2025
Serie AFlamengo 1–0 Atletico Mineiro - 13 Nov 2024
Serie AFlamengo 0–0 Atletico Mineiro
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Flamengo's attack rates 68% above Atletico Mineiro's, and Flamengo concede 15% fewer than Atletico Mineiro. That gives Flamengo the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 0.80 | 0.96 |
| Flamengo | 1.34 | 0.82 |
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo beat Atletico Mineiro 3–2. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte 7' for Atletico Mineiro, Gonzalo Plata 34' for Flamengo, Giorgian de Arrascaeta 41' for Flamengo, Renan Lodi 59' for Atletico Mineiro, Jorge Carrascal (penalty) 90+9' for Flamengo. On expected goals it finished 2.94–1.01.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Flamengo a 60.5% chance to win the league: 66.3% after a win, 49.9% after a draw, 45.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.3%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.
For Atletico Mineiro the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 42.4% after a win, 26.9% after a draw, 19.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 19.1%.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.