Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Ittihad AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Neftchi Fergana 1-2 Al-Ittihad.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Neftchi Fergana, 24% draw, 55% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ittihad at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Ittihad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. ErgashevG
- 52K. KouaoD
- 3MichelD
- 4B. CigerD
- 34F. SayfiyevD
- 7A. IsmailovM
- 8V. JovovićM
- 77RatinhoM
- 22Alisher OdilovM
- 10J. IskanderovM
- 88M. ForssF
- 2I. PulatovD
- 45A. TuraevG
- 71B. ToshmirzaevF
- 31Yan SasseF
- 20A. G'ofurovD
- 19A. ErimbetovM
- 9K. GiyosovF
- 27N. SarsenbaevF
- 11A. JumayevM
- 1P. RajkovićG
- 6Saad Al MosaD
- 2Danilo PereiraD
- 30D. LopyD
- 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiM
- 23G. WijnaldumM
- 34S. BergwijnM
- 5R. RiosM
- 25F. AbdiM
- 10H. AouarF
- 99G. IlenikhenaF
- 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
- 8Mukhtar AliM
- 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
- 88Osama Al MermeshG
- 22Marwan Al SahafiF
- 66Mohammed BarnawiD
- 21Y. En-NesyriF
- 42Muath FaqeehiD
- 41Mohammed FallatahM
Form going into Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Ittihad
Neftchi Fergana
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-3away to Al-Nassr12 October 2026
- W1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya14 September 2026
Al-Ittihad
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-2Shabab Al Ahli Dubai13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Shamal14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Neftchi Fergana | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Al-Ittihad won 2–1 at Neftchi Fergana. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al-Ittihad at 55%. The goals: Jamshid Iskanderov (penalty) 17' for Neftchi Fergana, Houssem Aouar 34' for Al-Ittihad, Youssef En-Nesyri 90' for Al-Ittihad. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.10.
How the call on Neftchi Fergana v Al-Ittihad has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 25% / 25% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 21% / 24% / 55%: the biggest move is Al-Ittihad's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Neftchi Fergana win21%▼ −4
- Draw24%▼ −1
- Al-Ittihad win55%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.