Coritiba vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 0-1 Gremio.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Coritiba, 27% draw, 30% Gremio — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Coritiba at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Gremio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55JacyD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 19S. GómezM
- 7J. LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 18Paulo RobertoF
- 14F. BustosD
- 77Breno LopesF
- 28FabinhoF
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 13KeillerG
- 3MaiconD
- 17B. OcampoF
- 25RichardM
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 1WevertonG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 82WallaceD
- 27Diego CaitoM
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 23MarlonM
- 7C. PavónF
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 11TetêF
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 99J. EnamoradoF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 18João PedroD
- 17DodiM
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 14Marcos RochaD
Form going into Coritiba vs Gremio
Coritiba
Serie A
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro17 October 2026
- D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026
Gremio
Serie A
- L2-4Cruzeiro18 October 2026
- D1-1Internacional11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Gremio
Coritiba and Gremio have met 7 times in the records we hold, Gremio has won 6 of them to Coritiba's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Gremio won the last one 1–0 on 26 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 |
| Gremio | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 4 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Oct 2026
Serie ACoritiba 0–1 Gremio - 26 Apr 2026
Serie AGremio 1–0 Coritiba - 1 Nov 2023
Serie ACoritiba 1–2 Gremio - 25 Jun 2023
Serie AGremio 5–1 Coritiba - 31 Jan 2021
Serie ACoritiba 1–1 Gremio - 7 Oct 2020
Serie AGremio 2–1 Coritiba - 15 Oct 2017
Serie ACoritiba 0–1 Gremio
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Gremio's attack rates 7% above Coritiba's, and Gremio concede 13% fewer than Coritiba. That gives Gremio the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Gremio
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gremio won 1–0 at Coritiba. The model had leaned towards a win for Coritiba at 43% and given a win for Gremio 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Martin Braithwaite 90+2' for Gremio. On expected goals it finished 1.21–1.87.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Coritiba a 9.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 2.0% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 17.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.9%, 8.7 points higher than before the match.
For Gremio the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 76.1% going in: 61.6% after a win, 78.6% after a draw, 85.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.6%, 14.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.