29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga prediction & result

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

Full time2 – 0

Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Borussia Dortmund, 23% draw, 17% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 17 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Borussia Dortmund at 60% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Guirassyassist: K. Karetsas

21'

Albert Sambi Lokonga

⚽S. Bornauw (OG)

45'

🔁G. Konstanteliasout: M. Sabitzer

54'

Julian Ryerson

58'

67'

🔁M. Adelineout: K. Amoako

67'

🔁P. Dakaout: T. Moffi

🔁J. Ryersonout: F. Mane

74'

🔁K. Karetsasout: S. Inacio

74'

🔁F. Nmechaout: J. Veerman

74'

Samuele Inacio

77'

82'

🔁J. Torunarighaout: B. Nadir

82'

🔁B. Jattaout: Y. Poulsen

🔁M. Beierout: K. Prates

84'

Daniel Svensson

85'

89'

🔁L. Lemkeout: R. Philippe

Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

56%Possession44%

20Shots7

6On target3

3Corners1

1.41xG0.69

Goals against chances

Borussia Dortmund2 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth

Hamburger SV0 from 0.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund 3-4-3

1G. KobelG
22J. GadouD
3W. AntonD
24D. SvenssonD
26J. RyersonM
7J. BellinghamM
8F. NmechaM
14M. BeierM
19K. KaretsasF
9S. GuirassyF
45G. KonstanteliasF

Substitutes

33A. MeyerG
39F. ManeD
49L. ReggianiD
36K. PratesD
20M. SabitzerM
40S. InacioF
25J. VeermanM
21F. SilvaF
41M. AlbertF

Coach: Niko Kovac

Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1

1D. Heuer FernandesG
24N. CapaldoD
33S. BornauwD
23J. TorunarighaD
18B. JattaM
6A. S. LokongaM
21N. RembergM
37L. LemkeM
5M. AdelineF
11A. GronbaekF
27P. DakaF

Substitutes

12S. TangvikG
43S. NandjaD
4B. NadirM
22K. AmoakoM
8D. ElfadliM
14R. PhilippeF
19O. StangeF
15Y. PoulsenF
9T. MoffiF

Coach: Merlin Polzin

Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	3	0	0	8	2	+6	9
18	Hamburger SV	3	0	0	3	0	12	-12	0

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

29 August 2026Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
21 March 2026Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
8 November 2025Hamburger SV 1–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
10 February 2018Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
20 September 2017Hamburger SV 0–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
4 April 2017Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga

Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV