29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga prediction & result

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Borussia Dortmund, 23% draw, 17% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Borussia Dortmund at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Guirassyassist: K. Karetsas
9'
21'
Albert Sambi Lokonga
⚽S. Bornauw (OG)
45'
🔁G. Konstanteliasout: M. Sabitzer
54'
Julian Ryerson
58'
67'
🔁M. Adelineout: K. Amoako
67'
🔁P. Dakaout: T. Moffi
🔁J. Ryersonout: F. Mane
74'
🔁K. Karetsasout: S. Inacio
74'
🔁F. Nmechaout: J. Veerman
74'
Samuele Inacio
77'
82'
🔁J. Torunarighaout: B. Nadir
82'
🔁B. Jattaout: Y. Poulsen
🔁M. Beierout: K. Prates
84'
Daniel Svensson
85'
89'
🔁L. Lemkeout: R. Philippe

Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

56%Possession44%
20Shots7
6On target3
3Corners1
1.41xG0.69

Goals against chances

Borussia Dortmund2 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Hamburger SV0 from 0.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund 3-4-3
  • 1G. KobelG
  • 22J. GadouD
  • 3W. AntonD
  • 24D. SvenssonD
  • 26J. RyersonM
  • 7J. BellinghamM
  • 8F. NmechaM
  • 14M. BeierM
  • 19K. KaretsasF
  • 9S. GuirassyF
  • 45G. KonstanteliasF
Substitutes
  • 33A. MeyerG
  • 39F. ManeD
  • 49L. ReggianiD
  • 36K. PratesD
  • 20M. SabitzerM
  • 40S. InacioF
  • 25J. VeermanM
  • 21F. SilvaF
  • 41M. AlbertF
Coach: Niko Kovac
Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
  • 1D. Heuer FernandesG
  • 24N. CapaldoD
  • 33S. BornauwD
  • 23J. TorunarighaD
  • 18B. JattaM
  • 6A. S. LokongaM
  • 21N. RembergM
  • 37L. LemkeM
  • 5M. AdelineF
  • 11A. GronbaekF
  • 27P. DakaF
Substitutes
  • 12S. TangvikG
  • 43S. NandjaD
  • 4B. NadirM
  • 22K. AmoakoM
  • 8D. ElfadliM
  • 14R. PhilippeF
  • 19O. StangeF
  • 15Y. PoulsenF
  • 9T. MoffiF
Coach: Merlin Polzin

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Borussia Dortmund9630167+921
11Hamburger SV94051020-1012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

  • 21 March 2026Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
  • 8 November 2025Hamburger SV 1–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 10 February 2018Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
  • 20 September 2017Hamburger SV 0–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 4 April 2017Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga

The full Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV record →

Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund

GoalsAssists

  • F. Nmecha40

Hamburger SV

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Borussia Dortmund beat Hamburger SV 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Borussia Dortmund at 60%. The goals: S. Guirassy 9' for Borussia Dortmund, S. Bornauw (own goal) 45' for Borussia Dortmund. Sent off: Samuele Inacio (Borussia Dortmund) 77'. On expected goals it finished 1.41–0.69.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.