30 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Benevento vs Sudtirol Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Benevento 1-1 Sudtirol.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Benevento, 31% draw, 33% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benevento at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benevento0%Draw4%Sudtirol96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

55'
Silvio Merkaj
59'
🔁V. Lopesout: R. Burnete
🔁L. Cherubiniout: D. Okereke
66'
69'
⚽S. Merkajassist: A. Vasic
71'
🔁A. Vasicout: S. Davi
🔁P. Beruattoout: E. Pierozzi
74'
🔁A. Priscoout: A. Siatounis
74'
Marco Tumminello
79'
🔁M. Tumminelloout: G. Mignani
80'
🔁D. Lamestaout: E. Schimmenti
80'
86'
🔁F. Rispoliout: F. Tait
86'
🔁S. Merkajout: A. Okoro
86'
🔁B. Bjarkasonout: E. Schroot
⚽F. Salvemini (pen)
90'

Match stats — Benevento vs Sudtirol

51%Possession49%
24Shots9
5On target2
11Corners1
2.23xG0.56

Goals against chances

Benevento1 from 2.23 xGless than the chances were worth
Sudtirol1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benevento 4-1-3-2
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 17L. SernicolaD
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 20P. BeruattoD
  • 4A. PriscoM
  • 11D. LamestaM
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 10L. CherubiniM
  • 9F. SalveminiF
  • 93M. TumminelloF
Substitutes
  • 96A. SyllaG
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 5L. CaldirolaD
  • 77E. PierozziD
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 6A. SiatounisM
  • 38A. TaliaM
  • 28C. KouanM
  • 29D. OkerekeF
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores
Sudtirol 5-4-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 79S. MolinaD
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 3D. VeroliD
  • 20B. BjarkasonD
  • 11V. LopesM
  • 10F. RispoliM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 14A. VasicM
  • 33S. MerkajF
Substitutes
  • 12R. VadjunecG
  • 32T. LauretiG
  • 23F. DaviD
  • 24S. DaviD
  • 39M. IulianoD
  • 21F. TaitM
  • 46D. BrikM
  • 26M. R. FrigerioM
  • 90A. OkoroF
Coach: Fabrizio Castori

Form going into Benevento vs Sudtirol

Benevento

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Modena22 August 2026

Sudtirol

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Benevento114431511+416
12Sudtirol113621312+115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benevento vs Sudtirol

  • 1 March 2023Benevento 0–2 SudtirolSerie B
  • 9 October 2022Sudtirol 1–1 BeneventoSerie B

Leading scorers: Benevento and Sudtirol

Benevento

GoalsAssists

  • A. Siatounis40

Sudtirol

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benevento and Sudtirol drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Benevento at 36% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Merkaj 69' for Sudtirol, F. Salvemini (penalty) 90' for Benevento. On expected goals it finished 2.23–0.56.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.