Mantova vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Mantova 3-1 Empoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Mantova, 29% draw, 32% Empoli — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Mantova at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mantova vs Empoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22F. BardiG
- 5B. TomasevicD
- 29S. CellaD
- 27A. CastelliniD
- 41J. SilvaM
- 21S. TrimboliM
- 25L. IgnacchitiM
- 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
- 8R. IlieF
- 19F. RuoccoF
- 9E. GliozziF
- 1L. GemelloG
- 12M. GaspariniG
- 75E. KospoD
- 6J. LongondaM
- 10D. WieserM
- 80R. KoudaM
- 20F. PaolettiM
- 18S. KeitaM
- 71F. ChinettiF
- 12J. SeghettiG
- 8L. MagninoD
- 25M. CurtoD
- 33C. CauzD
- 35M. EganM
- 21G. YepesM
- 98K. ZedadkaM
- 91N. CorradoM
- 10E. SaporitiF
- 20F. Di StefanoF
- 11S. ShpendiF
- 1S. PerisanG
- 13E. FilippisG
- 28G. IndragoliD
- 29L. TostoD
- 40R. BerizziD
- 6S. RomagnoliD
- 57L. BelardinelliM
- 45A. OrlandiM
- 38M. HuqiM
Form going into Mantova vs Empoli
Mantova
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026
Empoli
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mantova | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 19 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mantova vs Empoli
- 14 March 2026Empoli 2–2 MantovaSerie B
- 21 December 2025Mantova 0–1 EmpoliSerie B
Leading scorers: Mantova and Empoli
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Empoli
GoalsAssists
- E. Saporiti40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mantova beat Empoli 3–1. The model had made a win for Mantova its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Saporiti 51' for Empoli, F. Ruocco 58' for Mantova, V. Vlahovic 61' for Mantova, F. Benaissa-Yahia 90' for Mantova. On expected goals it finished 1.28–0.46.