Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Benevento 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Benevento, 24% draw, 18% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Benevento at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26G. VannucchiG
- 77E. PierozziD
- 14S. ScognamilloD
- 23P. SaioD
- 20P. BeruattoD
- 8M. MaitaM
- 11D. LamestaM
- 6A. SiatounisM
- 28C. KouanM
- 9F. SalveminiF
- 29D. OkerekeF
- 10L. CherubiniF
- 15C. Dalle MuraD
- 22M. EspositoG
- 16Mattia ManniniD
- 32G. MignaniF
- 4A. PriscoM
- 25Raffaele RomanoD
- 18P. SimonettiM
- 38A. TaliaM
- 16R. GagnoG
- 66A. PapettiD
- 23N. BrighentiD
- 5R. MarchizzaD
- 21T. CorazzaM
- 26G. PellizzariM
- 8A. BellemoM
- 29L. ZontaM
- 32F. CostaM
- 11G. MonciniF
- 33S. MerkajF
- 7N. RautiF
- 99A. PietrelliM
- 9C. MorraF
- 6M. LeverbeD
- 4M. CarraroM
- 28L. CaferriD
- 24Filippo AlessioF
- 27T. SandonD
- 44R. TalaricoM
Form going into Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus
Benevento
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Cesena10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese19 September 2026
- W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
- D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
Vicenza Virtus
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Pisa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
What these results say
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benevento had two goals or fewer.
- Vicenza Virtus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vicenza Virtus had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Benevento | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 18 | Vicenza Virtus | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus
- 16 May 2026Vicenza Virtus 1–4 BeneventoSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
- 10 April 2022Benevento 1–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 30 November 2021Vicenza Virtus 2–3 BeneventoSerie B
- 21 April 2017Benevento 0–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 26 November 2016Vicenza Virtus 0–0 BeneventoSerie B
Leading scorers: Benevento and Vicenza Virtus
Benevento
GoalsAssists
- A. Siatounis40
Vicenza Virtus
GoalsAssists
- S. Merkaj31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benevento and Vicenza Virtus drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Benevento at 58% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Antonis Siatounis 22' for Benevento, Christian Kouan 27' for Benevento, Tommaso Corazza 68' for Vicenza Virtus, L. Caferri 87' for Vicenza Virtus. On expected goals it finished 2.00–1.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Benevento a 37.9% chance to finish in the top four: 40.7% after a win, 33.6% after a draw, 30.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.6%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.
For Vicenza Virtus the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 49.6% going in: 40.9% after a win, 48.0% after a draw, 52.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.0%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Benevento v Vicenza Virtus has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Benevento's chance of winning, up 12 points.
- Benevento win58%▲ +12
- Draw24%▼ −4
- Vicenza Virtus win18%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.