17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Ascoli vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Referee: Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni, Italy
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ascoli 1-1 Empoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Ascoli, 28% draw, 20% Empoli — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ascoli at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ascoli5%Draw93%Empoli2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Joseph Ceesay
⚽Nicholas Rizzoassist: Matteo Brunori
26'
45'
🔁Edoardo Biondiniout: Filippo Bandinelli
54'
🔁Gerard Yepesout: Lapo Deli
🔁Gennao Acamporaout: Don Bolsius
62'
🔁Matteo Brunoriout: amine chakir
62'
🔁Andrea·Silipoout: Giacomo De Pieri
63'
🔁Andrea Oliveriout: Tommaso Milanese
63'
63'
🔁Bogdan Popovout: Steven Shpendi
🔁Marcos Curadoout: Federico Gattoni
71'
84'
🔁Joseph Ceesayout: Matteo Egan
84'
🔁Edoardo Saporitiout: Luca Belardinelli
90'
Luca Magnino
Abdoul Guiebre
90+2'

Match stats — Ascoli vs Empoli

62%Possession38%
9Shots16
2On target3
6Corners8
1.59xG0.82

Goals against chances

Ascoli1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Empoli1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ascoli 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 14A. OliveriD
  • 30M. CuradoD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 19A. GuiébréD
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 15S. D'UffiziM
  • 99Matteo BrunoriF
Substitutes
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 45G. CrespiG
  • 9A. ChakirF
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 5L. VenutiD
  • 77D. BolsiusF
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 11S. PerciunM
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
Coach: Francesco Tomei
Empoli 3-5-2
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 8L. MagninoD
  • 25M. CurtoD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 98K. ZedadkaM
  • 39E. BiondiniM
  • 21Gerard YepesM
  • 10E. SaporitiM
  • 91N. CorradoM
  • 77B. PopovF
  • 15J. CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 1S. PerisanG
  • 36D. BembnistaD
  • 28G. IndragoliD
  • 35M. EganD
  • 44L. DeliM
  • 5D. Degli InnocentiM
  • 57L. BelardinelliM
  • 23F. BandinelliM
  • 16F. MeznarF
Coach: M. Andreoletti

Form going into Ascoli vs Empoli

Ascoli

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Sudtirol10 October 2026
  • W3-1Avellino19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
  • W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
  • D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026

Empoli

All competitions we cover

  • L2-4Palermo10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Modena20 September 2026
  • L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
  • Empoli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Empoli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ascoli11551177+1020
19Empoli112361219-79

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Empoli

  • 1 May 2021Ascoli 2–0 EmpoliSerie B
  • 30 December 2020Empoli 1–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 13 July 2020Ascoli 1–0 EmpoliSerie B
  • 7 December 2019Empoli 2–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 10 February 2018Ascoli 1–2 EmpoliSerie B
  • 16 September 2017Empoli 3–0 AscoliSerie B

Leading scorers: Ascoli and Empoli

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Empoli

GoalsAssists

  • E. Saporiti40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ascoli and Empoli drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ascoli at 52% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Joseph Ceesay 14' for Empoli, Nicholas Rizzo 26' for Ascoli. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ascoli a 44.7% chance to finish in the top four: 48.4% after a win, 40.3% after a draw, 37.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 40.3%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

For Empoli the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.7% going in: 18.1% after a win, 25.4% after a draw, 27.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 25.4%.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ascoli v Empoli has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 30% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 28% / 20%: the biggest move is Ascoli's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Ascoli win52%▲ +6
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Empoli win20%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.