Padova vs Virtus Entella Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Padova 1-2 Virtus Entella.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Padova, 31% draw, 31% Virtus Entella — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Padova at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Padova vs Virtus Entella
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 27Alessandro DellavalleD
- 5M. LovatoD
- 58C. PastinaD
- 24L. CarissoniM
- 6G. GiuntiM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 14M. PompettiM
- 34M. CocchiM
- 90G. ArtisticoF
- 15K. LasagnaF
- 9L. MoroF
- 74D. MarcoliniM
- 25N. GalazziM
- 8P. FusiM
- 17A. CapelliM
- 11A. SeghettiF
- 23F. Di MarianoM
- 20M. BortolussiF
- 32F. SgarbiD
- 22F. Del FrateG
- 23L. ParodiD
- 6A. TiritielloD
- 27M. AlborghettiD
- 94F. MezzoniM
- 18T. AnnoniM
- 5N. SquizzatoM
- 24A. FranzoniM
- 26Stefano Di MarioM
- 17M. TirelliF
- 10L. CupponeF
- 91S. ColombiG
- 9Giacomo CoronaF
- 40Gabriele CostaM
- 55Lucas FelippeM
- 11Bernat GuiuF
- 70Marwane KrittaD
- 39M. MotoleseD
- 3N. PrevitaliD
- 12E. TorrielliG
Form going into Padova vs Virtus Entella
Padova
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Carrarese11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palermo19 September 2026
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
Virtus Entella
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Juve Stabia10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Cremonese19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Pisa11 September 2026
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus6 September 2026
- L1-2Cesena29 August 2026
What these results say
- Padova failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Virtus Entella | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Padova vs Virtus Entella
- 25 April 2026Virtus Entella 1–0 PadovaSerie B
- 21 September 2025Padova 2–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 17 May 2025Padova 0–1 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
- 3 November 2021Padova 2–1 Virtus EntellaCoppa Italia Serie C
The result against the call
Virtus Entella won 2–1 at Padova. The model had leaned towards a win for Padova at 38% and given a win for Virtus Entella 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Stefano Di Mario (own goal) 28' for Padova, Andrea Tiritiello 54' for Virtus Entella, Bernat Guiu 84' for Virtus Entella. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.73.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Padova a 17.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.2% after a win, 18.7% after a draw, 21.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.0%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
For Virtus Entella the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.6% going in: 11.9% after a win, 17.0% after a draw, 19.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.9%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.