Carrarese vs Modena Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Carrarese 2-1 Modena.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Carrarese, 31% draw, 36% Modena — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Modena at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Carrarese vs Modena
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. PizzignaccoG
- 13F. RuggeriD
- 6F. OlianaD
- 33F. RealeD
- 7N. BelloniM
- 77G. ParlantiM
- 18Nicolás SchiaviM
- 23M. BraunöderM
- 73J. RouhiM
- 9F. AbiusoF
- 10T. RubinoF
- 28J. MartiniM
- 91G. MarconiF
- 66P. PinelliM
- 41L. RomaniD
- 17L. TopalovićM
- 11M. CisséF
- 70N. CudrigF
- 32M. FinottoF
- 12G. GarofaniG
- 1L. ChichizolaG
- 77D. TonoliD
- 6S. NadorD
- 20B. NielingD
- 27Paulo AzziM
- 8S. SantoroM
- 16G. BrugmanM
- 42A. BiancoM
- 7F. ZampanoM
- 10G. CasoF
- 70G. AmbrosinoF
- 29L. BacchinF
- 11A. BelottiF
- 17K. BozhanajM
- 22L. ConsiglioG
- 23F. FolinoD
- 26A. ImputatoF
- 25A. LaidaniG
- 9D. MontevagoF
- 15Martino OderoD
Form going into Carrarese vs Modena
Carrarese
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Padova11 October 2026
- L0-1Benevento19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Catanzaro12 September 2026
- L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
Modena
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Hellas Verona11 October 2026
- W2-1Empoli20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Carrarese had two goals or fewer.
- Carrarese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Carrarese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Modena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Modena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Carrarese | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
| 2 | Modena | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Modena
- 14 February 2026Modena 2–0 CarrareseSerie B
- 1 October 2025Carrarese 0–0 ModenaSerie B
- 4 May 2025Carrarese 2–1 ModenaSerie B
- 9 November 2024Modena 2–0 CarrareseSerie B
- 12 March 2022Carrarese 2–3 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
- 31 October 2021Modena 2–0 CarrareseSerie C - Girone B
Leading scorers: Carrarese and Modena
Carrarese
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Modena
GoalsAssists
- A. Belotti70
- G. Ambrosino33
- G. Caso32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Carrarese beat Modena 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Modena at 36% and given a win for Carrarese 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fabio abiuso 1' for Carrarese, Tommaso Rubino 52' for Carrarese, Andrea Belotti 76' for Modena. Sent off: Guido Pagliuca (Carrarese) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.78–1.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Carrarese a 23.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.0% after a win, 23.3% after a draw, 26.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.0%, 5 points lower than before the match.
For Modena the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 50.9% going in: 57.0% after a win, 48.4% after a draw, 45.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.3%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Carrarese v Modena has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 31% / 32% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 33% / 31% / 36%: the biggest move is Carrarese's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Carrarese win33%▲ +2
- Draw31%▼ −1
- Modena win36%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.