17 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Mantova vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Referee: Luca Zufferli, Italy
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Mantova 0-2 Palermo.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Mantova, 27% draw, 36% Palermo — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mantova at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mantova0%Draw1%Palermo99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
Mattia Bani
🔁Rares Ilieout: Lorenzo Ignacchiti
55'
62'
⚽Jacopo Segre
66'
🔁Filippo·Ranocchiaout: Nahuel Estévez
🔁Francesco Ruoccoout: Ettore Gliozzi
74'
🔁Rachid Koudaout: Ismael Cajazzo
74'
77'
🔁Dennis Johnsenout: Hernani
77'
🔁Joel Pohjanpaloout: Alessandro Gabrielloni
🔁Tommaso Del Lungoout: Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo
84'
84'
🔁Jacopo Segreout: Patryk Peda
84'
🔁Antonio Palumboout: Luca Mazzitelli
86'
⚽Hernaniassist: Dominic Vavassori

Match stats — Mantova vs Palermo

56%Possession44%
15Shots13
4On target5
3Corners3
1.92xG2

Goals against chances

Mantova0 from 1.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Palermo2 from 2.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomaševićD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 58Tommaso Del LungoM
  • 21S. TrimboliM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 30D. BragantiniM
  • 8R. IlieM
  • 19F. RuoccoF
Substitutes
  • 12M. GaspariniG
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 9E. GliozziF
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 6J. MboyoM
  • 18S. KeitaM
  • 75E. KošpoD
  • 17N. RadaelliD
  • 77F. VesentiniM
Coach: F. Modesto
Palermo 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. PerinG
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 13M. BaniD
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 3T. AugelloD
  • 8J. SegreM
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
  • 9D. VavassoriM
  • 5A. PalumboM
  • 17D. JohnsenM
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Substitutes
  • 36L. MazzitelliM
  • 12M. NespolaG
  • 29P. PedaD
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 11E. GyasiD
  • 6C. GomesM
  • 99A. GabrielloniF
  • 14M. FortinG
  • 24N. EstévezM
Coach: F. Inzaghi

Form going into Mantova vs Palermo

Mantova

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Catanzaro11 October 2026
  • D2-2Pisa20 September 2026
  • W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
  • W3-1Empoli30 August 2026

Palermo

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2away to Empoli10 October 2026
  • W2-1Padova19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
  • W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Mantova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Mantova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Mantova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Palermo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Mantova115421511+419
1Palermo118302513+1227

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mantova vs Palermo

  • 3 September 2026Palermo 5–2 MantovaCoppa Italia
  • 4 March 2026Palermo 2–1 MantovaSerie B
  • 11 January 2026Mantova 1–1 PalermoSerie B
  • 16 February 2025Palermo 2–2 MantovaSerie B
  • 30 October 2024Mantova 0–0 PalermoSerie B

Leading scorers: Mantova and Palermo

Mantova

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ruocco50

Palermo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Johnsen75
  • D. Vavassori61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Palermo won 2–0 at Mantova. The model had leaned towards a win for Mantova at 37% and given a win for Palermo 36%. The goals: Jacopo Segre 62' for Palermo, Hernani 86' for Palermo. On expected goals it finished 1.92–2.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mantova a 44.6% chance to finish in the top four: 51.1% after a win, 43.4% after a draw, 38.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.7%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

For Palermo the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 35.4% going in: 41.4% after a win, 34.5% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.4%, 6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mantova v Palermo has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Mantova's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Mantova win37%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Palermo win36%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.