Twente vs Qarabag UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Twente 0-1 Qarabag.
Before kick-off the model made it 81% Twente, 12% draw, 7% Qarabag — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoff round tie. Second leg: Qarabag v Twente, 27 Aug →
Twente went through 4–2 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 81%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Twente vs Qarabag
Line-ups
- 1L. UnnerstallG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 3R. PropperD
- 43R. NijstadD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 7M. PjacaM
- 11D. RotsM
- 42D. WeidmannM
- 27S. OrjasaeterM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 22R. PasveerG
- 16J. DrommelG
- 12G. PeixotoD
- 38M. BrunsD
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 4M. KjoloM
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 10S. LammersF
- 23M. ZlomislicG
- 2Matheus SilvaD
- 55B. HuseynovD
- 4B. Varkonyi
- 5B. LangaD
- 88S. LobatoM
- 8M. JankovicM
- 21O. KashchukM
- 20Kady BorgesM
- 7J. MouaddibM
- 22M. QurbanlyF
- 99M. KochalskiG
- 1S. MahammadaliyevG
- 13B. MustafazadaD
- 18Dani BoltD
- 9J. MontielM
- 32H. CabrayilzadaD
- 49A. BashirovM
Form going into Twente vs Qarabag
Twente
All competitions we cover
- W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026
- D3-3away to Dunajska Streda13 August 2026
- L0-1away to Heerenveen9 August 2026
- W6-0Dunajska Streda6 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC30 July 2026
Qarabag
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Dynamo Kyiv13 August 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv6 August 2026
- D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026
What these results say
- Twente scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Twente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Twente had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Qarabag had two goals or fewer.
- Qarabag failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Qarabag failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Twente and Qarabag in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Twente | UEFA Europa Conference League | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Premyer Liqa
Leading scorers: Twente and Qarabag
Twente
GoalsAssists
- M. Pjaca41
- D. Weidmann35
Qarabag
No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Qarabag won 1–0 at Twente. The model had leaned towards a win for Twente at 81% and given a win for Qarabag 7%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 14 matches like this one. The goal: Kady Borges 52' for Qarabag.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.