20 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Twente vs Qarabag UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
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Final score: Twente 0-1 Qarabag.

Before kick-off the model made it 81% Twente, 12% draw, 7% Qarabag — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Twente at 81% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Twente vs Qarabag

Twente

  • W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026

Qarabag

  • W2-0Dynamo Kyiv13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv6 August 2026
  • D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
  • D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Leading scorers: Twente and Qarabag

Twente

  • M. Pjaca4 goals1 assists
  • M. Bruns3 goals

Qarabag

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.