Blackburn vs Millwall Championship prediction & result
Final score: Blackburn 3-1 Millwall.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Blackburn, 29% draw, 33% Millwall — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Blackburn at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackburn vs Millwall
Line-ups
- 22B. TóthG
- 17H. CarterD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 2R. AlebiosuM
- 10T. CantwellM
- 25R. MorishitaM
- 21O. AfolayanF
- 45Harvey HigginsM
- 53F. VareM
- 1A. PearsG
- 3H. PickeringD
- 24M. BaradjiM
- 27Gady BeyukuD
- 11J. FevrierF
- 30J. GarrettM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 2J. Osei-TutuD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 11R. EsseM
- 7T. ArconteM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 13L. DykesF
- 35Y. IssoufouF
- 16D. KellyM
- 29Z. LovelaceF
- 34F. MarschallG
- 44Alfie MasseyM
- 55Tristan ParkesD
- 17M. SykesM
- 12E. BaggottD
- 23D. BatthD
Form going into Blackburn vs Millwall
Blackburn
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
- L1-2away to Preston5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Lincoln1 September 2026
- L1-2QPR29 August 2026
- W2-1Middlesbrough22 August 2026
Millwall
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
- L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
- W3-0Norwich22 August 2026
- W2-0away to Bristol City15 August 2026
What these results say
- Blackburn failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Millwall
- 14 March 2026Millwall 1–2 BlackburnChampionship
- 20 December 2025Blackburn 2–0 MillwallChampionship
- 18 April 2025Blackburn 4–1 MillwallChampionship
- 21 December 2024Millwall 1–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 5 March 2024Blackburn 1–1 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Millwall
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Millwall
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Blackburn beat Millwall 3–1. The model had made a win for Blackburn its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Oladapo Afolayan 41' for Blackburn, Lyndon Dykes (penalty) 51' for Millwall, Oladapo Afolayan 58' for Blackburn, Andri Guðjohnsen 90+3' for Blackburn.
How the call on Blackburn v Millwall has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Blackburn's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Blackburn win38%▼ −3
- Draw29%=
- Millwall win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.