Blackburn vs Millwall Championship prediction & result
Final score: Blackburn 3-1 Millwall.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Blackburn, 29% draw, 33% Millwall — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Blackburn at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackburn vs Millwall
Line-ups
- 22B. TóthG
- 17H. CarterD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 2R. AlebiosuM
- 10T. CantwellM
- 25R. MorishitaM
- 21O. AfolayanF
- 45Harvey HigginsM
- 53F. VareM
- 1A. PearsG
- 3H. PickeringD
- 24M. BaradjiM
- 27Gady BeyukuD
- 11J. FevrierF
- 30J. GarrettM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 2J. Osei-TutuD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 11R. EsseM
- 7T. ArconteM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 13L. DykesF
- 35Y. IssoufouF
- 16D. KellyM
- 29Z. LovelaceF
- 34F. MarschallG
- 44Alfie MasseyM
- 55Tristan ParkesD
- 17M. SykesM
- 12E. BaggottD
- 23D. BatthD
Form going into Blackburn vs Millwall
Blackburn
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
- L1-2away to Preston5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Lincoln1 September 2026
- L1-2QPR29 August 2026
Millwall
- W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
- L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Millwall
- 12 September 2026Blackburn 3–1 MillwallChampionship
- 14 March 2026Millwall 1–2 BlackburnChampionship
- 20 December 2025Blackburn 2–0 MillwallChampionship
- 18 April 2025Blackburn 4–1 MillwallChampionship
- 21 December 2024Millwall 1–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 5 March 2024Blackburn 1–1 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Millwall
Blackburn
- A. Guðjohnsen3 goals1 assists
Millwall
- L. Dykes4 goals
- T. Arconte3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.