12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

Bolton vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result

Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Bolton 1-0 Cardiff.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bolton, 28% draw, 29% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bolton at 43% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bolton5%Draw92%Cardiff3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ben Davies
31'
Kyliane Dong
32'
Samuel Iling
37'
42'
Joel Colwill
🔁Sam Dalbyout: Thelonius Bair
45'
🔁Samuel Ilingout: Thierry Gale
45'
54'
Perry Tian Hee Ng
59'
🔁Joel Colwillout: David Turnbull
🔁Ruben Rodriguesout: Atsuki Ito
64'
74'
🔁Christopher Willockout: C. Ashford
75'
🔁Yousef Salechout: Callum Robinson
🔁Kyliane Dongout: Jayden Nelson
75'
Jayden Nelson
78'
🔁Ethan Erhahonout: Ryan Hardie
83'
⚽Thierry Galeassist: Thelonius Bair
90'
Thierry Gale
90+1'
90+2'
🔁Joel Baganout: Calum Scanlon
90+2'
🔁Alexander Sean Pablo Robertsonout: Ronan Kpakio

Match stats — Bolton vs Cardiff

41%Possession59%
7Shots17
5On target10
2Corners10

Line-ups

Bolton 4-2-3-1
  • 31G. BazunuG
  • 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
  • 18E. ToalD
  • 6B. DaviesD
  • 25M. ConwayD
  • 8J. SheehanM
  • 21E. ErhahonM
  • 16S. Iling-JuniorM
  • 20Ruben RodriguesM
  • 7K. DongM
  • 10S. DalbyF
Substitutes
  • 1J. BonhamG
  • 14A. FamewoD
  • 17A. ItoM
  • 45J. McAteeF
  • 26J. NelsonF
  • 39R. HardieF
  • 11T. GaleF
  • 4X. SimonsM
  • 9T. BairF
Coach: S. Schumacher
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 5K. BielikD
  • 4G. OshoD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 8J. MoylanM
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 9Y. SalechF
Substitutes
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 43P. MorenoM
  • 23C. ScanlonD
  • 33R. TankiewiczM
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 41M. TurnerG
  • 30H. TyrerG
  • 45Cian AshfordF
  • 47C. RobinsonF
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy

Form going into Bolton vs Cardiff

Bolton

  • L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
  • L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026

Cardiff

  • D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
  • D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Bolton7214712-57
21Cardiff7043711-44

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bolton vs Cardiff

  • 12 September 2026Bolton 1–0 CardiffChampionship
  • 11 April 2026Cardiff 2–0 BoltonLeague One
  • 25 October 2025Bolton 1–0 CardiffLeague One
  • 13 February 2018Cardiff 2–0 BoltonChampionship
  • 23 December 2017Bolton 2–0 CardiffChampionship
  • 23 April 2016Cardiff 2–1 BoltonChampionship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.