Bolton vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 1-0 Cardiff.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bolton, 28% draw, 29% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bolton at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Cardiff
Line-ups
- 31G. BazunuG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 18E. ToalD
- 6B. DaviesD
- 25M. ConwayD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 20Ruben RodriguesM
- 7K. DongM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 1J. BonhamG
- 14A. FamewoD
- 17A. ItoM
- 45J. McAteeF
- 26J. NelsonF
- 39R. HardieF
- 11T. GaleF
- 4X. SimonsM
- 9T. BairF
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 5K. BielikD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 11O. TannerM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 16C. WillockM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 44R. KpakioD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 41M. TurnerG
- 30H. TyrerG
- 45Cian AshfordF
- 47C. RobinsonF
Form going into Bolton vs Cardiff
Bolton
All competitions we cover
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
- L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026
- D0-0away to QPR22 August 2026
Cardiff
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
- L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
- D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Derby22 August 2026
What these results say
- Bolton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Cardiff
- 11 April 2026Cardiff 2–0 BoltonLeague One
- 25 October 2025Bolton 1–0 CardiffLeague One
- 13 February 2018Cardiff 2–0 BoltonChampionship
- 23 December 2017Bolton 2–0 CardiffChampionship
- 23 April 2016Cardiff 2–1 BoltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Bolton and Cardiff
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bolton beat Cardiff 1–0. The model had made a win for Bolton its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Thierry Gale 90' for Bolton.
How the call on Bolton v Cardiff has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Bolton's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Bolton win43%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Cardiff win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.