Derby vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Derby 1-2 Birmingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Derby, 29% draw, 33% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derby vs Birmingham
Line-ups
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 23J. WardD
- 6S. LangåsD
- 44E. CashinD
- 18C. TaylorD
- 8B. ClarkM
- 4D. OzohM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 19H. MeisterM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 31J. VickersG
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 26R. HedgesM
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 20A. MowattM
- 24R. NyambeD
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 28D. SandersonD
- 1J. BeadleG
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 14J. SolisM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 9A. PriskeF
- 8Paik Seung-HoM
- 32L. VázquezF
- 25K. LundD
- 2E. LairdD
- 27K. FujimotoM
- 33M. DuckschF
- 3L. BuchananD
- 21R. AllsopG
- 23D. FryD
Form going into Derby vs Birmingham
Derby
- L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
- L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
- L0-3Swansea29 August 2026
Birmingham
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
- D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wrexham28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Birmingham
- 12 September 2026Derby 1–2 BirminghamChampionship
- 21 March 2026Derby 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 26 December 2025Birmingham 1–1 DerbyChampionship
- 30 January 2022Derby 2–2 BirminghamChampionship
- 10 September 2021Birmingham 2–0 DerbyChampionship
- 24 April 2021Derby 1–2 BirminghamChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and Birmingham
Derby
- B. Clark2 goals2 assists
Birmingham
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.