Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Torque CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Atletico Torque.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Atletico Mineiro, 22% draw, 14% Atletico Torque — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Semi-finals tie. Second leg: Atletico Torque v Atletico Mineiro, 21 Oct →
Atletico Mineiro went through 3–2 on aggregate.
All CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Mineiro at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Torque
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 21A. FrancoD
- 40VitãoD
- 13LyancoD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 8MayconM
- 15K. CastañoM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 11BernardM
- 19ReinierF
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 92DuduF
- 17Igor GomesM
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 18T. BorbasF
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 1F. TorgnascioliG
- 17E. AgüeroD
- 24G. KagelmacherD
- 3K. SilvaD
- 2B. GutierrezD
- 26F. SilveraD
- 5F. PizzichilloM
- 8P. SilesM
- 20G. MontesM
- 10E. ObregónM
- 9S. RodríguezF
- 32S. CáceresM
- 23L. DuréM
- 19D. GuzmánM
- 18R. LecchiniF
- 16ignacio molinaF
- 21N. PerezD
- 30J. QuintanaF
- 13G. RodríguezG
- 27J. TaránM
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Torque
Atletico Mineiro
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
- L0-2away to Santos9 September 2026
- D2-2RB Bragantino19 August 2026
- W1-0away to RB Bragantino12 August 2026
Atletico Torque
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
- W3-0Cienciano18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cienciano11 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
CONMEBOL Sudamericana table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Mineiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Atletico Torque
Atletico Mineiro
GoalsAssists
- Bernard50
- T. Cuello34
- Reinier31
Atletico Torque
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez71
- F. Pizzichillo31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Mineiro beat Atletico Torque 3–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Mineiro its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Reinier Jesus Carvalho 37' for Atletico Mineiro, Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte 42' for Atletico Mineiro, Thiago Borbas 80' for Atletico Mineiro. On expected goals it finished 2.16–0.31.
How the call on Atletico Mineiro v Atletico Torque has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 64% / 22% / 14%: the biggest move is Atletico Mineiro's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Atletico Mineiro win64%▲ +9
- Draw22%▼ −4
- Atletico Torque win14%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.