Montenegro vs Armenia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Montenegro 0-0 Armenia.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Montenegro, 28% draw, 26% Armenia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Montenegro at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Montenegro vs Armenia
Line-ups
- 1B. PopovićG
- 2M. RoganovićD
- 4A. ĐurićD
- 15S. SavićD
- 16O. GaševićD
- 8M. JankovićM
- 21A. BulatovićM
- 17Vasilije AdžićM
- 19V. ĐukanovićF
- 9N. KrstovićF
- 20M. OsmajićF
- 10S. JovetićF
- 14J. DrešajD
- 22S. LončarM
- 13I. NikićG
- 12D. PetkovićG
- 3R. RadunovićD
- 6S. RubežićD
- 7M. VešovićD
- 5I. VujačićD
- 12A. BeglaryanG
- 3E. PiloyanD
- 22E. SimonyanD
- 4G. HarutyunyanD
- 21N. TiknizyanD
- 6U. IwuM
- 8K. HovhannisyanM
- 9A. SerobyanM
- 14G. ManvelyanM
- 7N. HovhannisyanM
- 18A. MiranyanF
- 16G. MatinyanG
- 1A. MishievG
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 15K. NalbandyanM
- 5A. PetrosyanD
- 10E. SpertsyanM
- 20D. TerteryanD
- 11N. GrigoryanF
- 23A. EloyanM
Form going into Montenegro vs Armenia
Montenegro
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Latvia2 October 2026
- W3-2away to Armenia28 September 2026
- W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026
Armenia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-2away to Cyprus2 October 2026
- L2-3Montenegro28 September 2026
- W2-0Latvia25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 | Armenia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Montenegro vs Armenia
- 28 September 2026Armenia 2–3 MontenegroUEFA Nations League
- 9 June 2025Montenegro 2–2 ArmeniaFriendlies
- 24 March 2022Armenia 1–0 MontenegroFriendlies
- 10 June 2017Montenegro 4–1 ArmeniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 11 November 2016Armenia 3–2 MontenegroWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
The result against the call
Montenegro and Armenia drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Montenegro at 46% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Stefan Loncar (Montenegro) 86'.
How the call on Montenegro v Armenia has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Montenegro's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Montenegro win46%▼ −7
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Armenia win26%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.